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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Walliker who wrote (56132)10/2/2000 12:08:03 AM
From: Dan3  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 93625
 
Re: However, none of this invalidates the Rambus patents as far as I can see.

And there's a good chance that that will be the outcome of the lawsuits (confirmation for Rambus).

But I continue to believe that there is at least as good a chance that the patents will be considered un-original or applicable only in the context of the rest of the RDRAM interface.

And that even if the patents are confirmed, that industry will design around them within 2 to 3 years.

IMHO, there simply isn't a credible revenue stream to justify the present valuation. If RDRAM had been accepted, and Rambus had developed a reasonable relationship with the actual producers, the situation would be different. Rambus should have held off on the lawsuits until they saw whether or not P4 could have turned things around for RDRAM - in a less confrontational environment, the producers would have been happy to build RDRAM (at a price, and as the cost came down) and Intel may well have continued to offer no alternative memory for P4.

Now Rambus is an endgame of 6 months or 3 years, but an endgame either way.

Regards,

Dan