To: maverick61 who wrote (36995 ) 10/2/2000 2:34:03 AM From: The Flying Crane Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57584 Hello all again... Here are some more "forest" looking of the Nasdaq closing of the last 10 years. I'm including the closing of the last 4 months of each year so we can all take a look at the historical "fall" rallies, if any. As you can see on the figure below, only 1998 and 1999 have very decent "fall" rallies. 1990 thru 1992 also had a relatively decent "fall" rallies as well. On the other hands, from 1993-1997 (5 years), the so-called "fall" rally were mediocre if at all. On the positive note, 1990-1992 had a progressive 8.52%, 11.29%, and 16.06% increase in "fall" rally respectively leading to the Presidential election in 1992. Do we have a repeat of the 3 years "fall" rally leading into this year election? "Hmmmmm....." However, don't forget that in the 1996 Presidential election, there were only mediocre increases in the "fall" rallies. "oohhhhhhh....." My conclusion based on the figure below is that statistically, there is no consistent "fall" rally in an annual basis. Will Year 2000 include another "fall" rally? My guess is that it is 50/50 at best. Therefore, IMHO, I will play the rest of this year in a more defensive stance. Not unlike defensive driving so to speak. Date Close Change Change 12 mths Change from Sept. % Change % -------- -------- ---------- ------ -------- ------ 12/31/99 4,069.31 1,323.16 48.18% 1,876.63 85.59% 11/30/99 3,336.16 590.01 21.48% 10/29/99 2,966.43 220.28 8.02%09/29/99 2,746.15 12/31/98 2,192.68 498.84 29.45% 622.33 39.63% 11/30/98 1,949.59 255.75 15.10% 10/31/98 1,771.38 77.54 4.58%09/30/98 1,693.84 12/31/97 1,570.35 (115.33 -6.84% 279.32 21.64% 11/30/97 1,600.55 (85.13) -5.05% 10/31/97 1,593.61 (92.07) -5.46%09/30/97 1,685.68 12/31/96 1,291.03 64.12 5.23% 238.91 22.71% 11/30/96 1,292.61 65.70 5.35% 10/31/96 1,221.51 (5.40) -0.44%09/30/96 1,226.91 12/31/95 1,052.12 8.58 0.82% 300.17 39.92% 11/30/95 1,059.19 15.65 1.50% 10/31/95 1,036.06 (7.48) -0.72%09/30/95 1,043.54 12/31/94 751.95 (12.34) -1.61% (24.85) -3.20% 11/30/94 750.32 (13.97) -1.83% 10/31/94 777.49 13.20 1.73%09/30/94 764.29 12/31/93 776.80 14.02 1.84% 99.86 14.75% 11/30/93 754.38 (8.40) -1.10% 10/31/93 779.26 16.48 2.16%09/30/93 762.78 12/31/92 676.94 93.67 16.06% 90.60 15.45% 11/30/92 652.72 69.45 11.91% 10/31/92 605.16 21.89 3.75%09/30/92 583.27 12/31/91 586.34 59.47 11.29% 212.50 56.84% 11/30/91 523.89 (2.98) -0.57% 10/31/91 542.97 16.10 3.06%09/30/91 526.87 12/31/90 373.84 29.34 8.52% 11/30/90 359.06 14.56 4.23% 10/31/90 329.84 (14.66) -4.26%09/30/90 344.50 Disclaimer The above numbers were pulled from my 10 years monthly chart. I did not verify if the data were corrected or not. It may include typo error. Therefore, read those numbers with caution.