To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (161377 ) 10/2/2000 3:56:21 PM From: calgal Respond to of 176387 PC INDUSTRY TRENDS Near the Bottom for the PC Group; Buy CPQ, GTW, DELL In Front of Improving News ♦ Fridays sell-off could be the bottom for the PC group. With Apple’s* (AAPL, $25.75, Market Performer) pre-announcement, we think the bad news is out there for the hardware stocks. The shift to positive information flow in the coming weeks should lead to a rebound for the well-positioned names. ♦ We continue to think overall PC demand is okay, sufficient for well-executing companies to deliver on expectations. Servers and portables remain the strongest areas. Recent positive comments by CPQ ($27.80, Strong Buy), GTW ($48.25, Strong Buy), DELL* ($30.81, Strong Buy) and HWP ($97.00, Buy) are likely to be taken more seriously with the big pre-announcements now probably behind us. ♦ Compaq and Gateway look like the best near-term PC trades. We think both are set to report good quarters in the next few weeks (GTW reports on Oct. 12 and CPQ on Oct. 24). Dell’s analysts meeting this week should also be positive as management continues to say the demand environment is solid. ♦ To make money in the PC group in the longer term, bet on improving vendor business models, not on the industry growth outlook. The former is what really drives PC stocks; the latter tends to be a distraction. Compaq is our top pick based on its improving business model. * Banc of America Securities LLC currently maintains a market in this security. By: Banc of America Securities 10/2/00 7:00:29 AM Morning Viewpoints: Visit the CNET Brokerage Center for daily reports from the top Wall Street analysts. cnetinvestor.com