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To: Prognosticator who wrote (36010)10/2/2000 7:06:27 PM
From: chic_hearne  Respond to of 64865
 
Re: My guess: it will take an earnings release from Intel on October 17 to set things going again, assuming they don't disappoint after their warning

Prog,

I don't see any way that Intel can avoid guiding down for Q4.

With P4 delayed and the 1.13 Ghz delay, they've completely lost the high end (for Q4 at least). AMD will have 1.1 Ghz and 1.2 Ghz for the whole quarter and 1.3 Ghz and 1.4 Ghz for part of the quarter.

The only way Intel can make earnings is with huge investment gains or by monopoly pricing considering AMD can only take about 20% of the market at best. No matter what, Intel supplies 80% of the market, so they could price those chips high and let AMD sell everything they can make.

This doesn't mean Intel will warn for sure. They may think it's too early and that things will work themselves out over the quarter. I think they will have to be very "creative" if they plan to make CURRENT revenue and profit estimates for Q4.

chic