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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (32740)	10/3/2000 12:27:55 AM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Respond to of 54805

It was simply a matter of arriving at one hypothesis and testing it. It was not a matter of data mining thousands, or hundreds, or even tens of tests and throwing out the tests that "failed." While I have to agree with TB's analysis that, if I throw up a thousand patterns against a given set of data, some of them are bound to work (whether or not they mean anything), the key in any test of this sort is, can I interpret this result in terms of some underlying factors, i.e., can I take the math and turn it into some kind of sense? Some people fish about, fiddling with the data, hoping that something interesting will pop out ... usually guaranteeing that anything that does pop out will be an artifact. Some construct a theory and then look to see whether it is supported, probably evolving the theory as it is tested against facts. This, it seems to me, is what Moore has done.