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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (5110)	10/3/2000 8:22:56 AM
From: edamo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

greg re: "in the past there was something great on the near term horizon" in the recent past, at least over the last five years, "everything was great" on the near term horizon. it was difficult not to pick a winner. the newer investor, who made great returns (and hopefully retained the major portion of same) created a disconnect from the share price to the real business world. this also applies to analysts that created new parameters to justify valuation. never in the history of business were companies with continuing losses able to self finance with ipo's and appreciating stock price. if one understands fully that the purchase of a share of stock is in essence a part ownership of the underlying company, they might evaluate things a bit differently. i'm not saying to return to the smokestack evaluations of the past, but to consider prior to investing, how much you are really paying/risking for potential growth. the growth must come from the real world company, to feed the growth of the share price..... to pay over a hundred dollars a share for a company that has revenues of less then one hundred million, perhaps several hundred employees, and is yet to make a profit is considered high risk in the real world..... who would over pay for a residence in an area that has no developed infrastructure.....better to wait, and perhaps pay, even a higher price, after a tangible value has developed..... the higher price at that point would give more value and lower risk. it's the old risk/reward consideration. safety in investing comes with real world tangibles, an intc, msft, etc. can sustain itself in real world due to its size, market presence, and cash position, even in the greatest of economic downturns...... a start up or fledgling company with no earnings will always fail as cash depletes itself. all this to say...........tremendous opportunities exist in quality growth companies, be they tech or not.....the dollars will return, and when they do, they will flow to quality, instead of potential..... if you believe in tech, then chips, networking, broadband, telecom are the answer............but better to wait until a confirmed upturn presents itself....... one just has to look at the intc "warning".....real world performance still exemplary for a company of its size.....but decimated in the eyes of the market who want more..... stocks will go up when those who sold off "wanting more", discover that "this is all there is".......money has to go somewhere...the theory of relativity in valuation will apply and cause those with "real world strength" to advance! good luck...ed a. p.s....still 80% cash since the first quarter...