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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Petz who wrote (125202)	10/3/2000 10:45:14 AM
From: Jim McMannis	Respond to of 1579777

John, RE:"Jim, did MU's quarter end a month ago? Wed. after bell would be awfully quick otherwise./Petz" MUs Q ended 8/20

To: Petz who wrote (125202)	10/3/2000 3:51:33 PM
From: greg nus	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1579777

Pritz, I'm glad you asked my opinion. It's been some time since i have commented on the subject. Here is what I've been thingking about AMD and Intel. AMD: Amd has made tremendous progress. In CPU's AMD has not only managed to match Intel's product line along the speed bumps, but in some cases AMD has exceeded Intels offerings. I contribute this to AMD's Engineering. AMD currently has a design advantage over Intel.The K-7 architecture is newer and cleaner in design, more scalable than Intel. Although AMD is now profitable. AMD is still about a year away from acheiving real critical mass. Untill Dresden is operating at or near full capacity Amd will operate under leveraged to it's full potential, while covering the almost full overhead burden, misus on the up funded capital equipment expenditures necessary to. full buildout. The best example I can give you is AMD only returns about 8% Return on assets. Compared to Intel's about 17% or TXN 17%. Ultimatly is becomes a drag on AMD's PE. Now close to a PE of 10. Meanwhile AMD inspite of imporved profitabliliity, timly exicution of the roadmap continuing patentable product innovation, AMD is not getting it's due respect. AMD has another undervaled potential advantage. Flash! The outlook for proliferation of cells phones, ditigal camera's, mp3 players and an endless assortment of other electronics give AMD a productline potentially more valuable than CPU's. I don't know why but CPU's receive majority focus of attention from analists in difference to CPU's product maturation, and the trend to untethered mobile communications makes Flash a more universaly deployable product. NO wonder AMD announced plans to increase production of Flash in Austin. Intel: Responsibility for Intel's current woh's starts in the Executive Ranks. Bottom line is Intel executives stayed far too long with chip architecture that has hit engineering limitations. Secondly Intel misscalculated the complexity of a repalcement design and the resulting time to market. Thirdly Intels top brass was insensitive some level of discrimination against key Asian engineers, who's loss left Intel's design staff intelectually handicaped at a critical point in time in view of the complexity of task to chip based on new architecture. Fourth Intel underestimated AMD as a competitor. Intel full discounted the tenacity of AMD, the intelectual prowless of the AMD engineers. But most importantly I belive Intel full epxected AMD to self destruct by continuing along a path of lost opertunities that had become all too familiarly associated to AMD. In short due to Executive arrigance Intel never dreamed AMD would ever manage to pull it's act together. Fifth to a lessor extent Intel's visious preditory business practices were reigned in by scrunity of the Federal Goverment investigations, allowed AMD some competive breathing room. A sixth factor is executive distration. Intel has it's finger is so many side line initiatives and investments to a point of "delutive distraction". It has to be affecting executive focus. This stems from two reasons. Managerial perinoia which Grove is famouse for, guiding Intel to not miss the next inflection point in the market. And the problem of what to do with the $8 billion pile of cash. Oddly enough Intel has admitted several occasions to erroring on the side of underspending no production capacity. Not enough chip production capacity to meet demand. It would appear an inflection point is not readily appearant even if your looking for one. This miss calculation is somewhat understandable given the ecomomic increases in yield from shrinking dice sizes resulting from following Moore's law down the path of progress. Predicting the demand for chips due to sucess of the internet was another executive miscalculation. Sucess of the internet placed demand for chips beyond Intel Eexecutive expectations. Ultimatly one would expect Intel to suceed far beyond AMD's acheivments. Armed with the almost unlimited capital resources, the abundance of ancillary investments should give Intel the advantage to evolve into the next Cisco. Remaining as controversial as ever, from the Nus News Desk, That is all!