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To: DownSouth who wrote (3959)	10/4/2000 4:04:51 PM
From: Climber	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10714

More goodies from Harvest and Jacobs on the Yahoo board: messages.yahoo.com Re Cree / Stephens by: rbrtjacobs1 10/4/00 12:30 am Msg: 36660 of 36740 In the words of Cindy Merrill at Stephens conference: "If we had any surprises we would have announced them by now..." Cindy was confident and made Cree appear to be "on top of it's game"...with a healthy dose of Andy Grove "paranoia" (my words..not hers). A very pleasant surprise was the expectation that a commercial lighting product would be on the market by next summer in limited quantities for difficult access situations (she gave example of high up in a church nave). General commercialization of Cree lighting (residential and commercial) in 5 -10 years. The range of Sic applications that can be used as LED's, MESFETS, Power chips, blue lasers is awesome...reiterated that within 5 years only 1/4 of sales will be from LED's...so re-read my post: messages.yahoo.com for what that could mean in 5 yrs... Re: Valuation by: rbrtjacobs1 10/2/00 9:43 am Msg: 36440 of 36741 One has to visit Cree and get a feel for what they are doing and how powerful their model and markets are. Try this to understand the earnings potential of their product. Imagine that each 2" wafer yields 30,000 HB chips (yields are getting close to perfect according to cree) Then find an ASP of say $.20 over say three years. Take their capacity of 20m chips per month 18 months ago when yields were in the 50% range for 20,000 chips per wafer or say 10,000. That means yields today are 3x what they were 18 months ago...so production is now 60m chips/month. Now increase production 3x (from plant expansion) for LED chips for 01 and then double that for 3" wafers and you now have 180m chips per month or 2B chips per year x $.20 = 400m in revenues for say '02. Grow that at 50% for two more years and you have 4b chips per year or $800m in LED chip revs in '05. Let the other lines of biz account for 75% as speculated by Cree'tins in SC and you have 3B in revenues. Think that is a lot of product? 4B in LED chips per year is about 70,000 3" wafers per year or say 200 wafers per day or 8 per hour. You can put 8 3" SiC wafers in an empty beer can... There is gold in them thar epi reactors... messages.yahoo.com Stephens power solutions conference by: harvest344 10/3/00 7:54 pm Msg: 36637 of 36741 Some random notes,in no particular order; Cree has the only ESD rated blue/green/white LEDs a must for the auto market. Cree lighting(Nitres)now has the world's brightest LED,17 milliwatts(sp)vs Nichia's best 12 milliwatts This is partly accomplished by making their own epi machines.New plant for production purposes for HB LEDs for white light being built in CA. New Brighter HB LEDS with help from Cree lighting to be available in 2nd half fiscal.With this there will be no difference in brightness between SiC and Sapphire. In the June qt white LED lighting for commerical use to be available,will market where lighting is difficult to service. Leds must be 10X brighter and 10X cheeper to replace the everyday light blub and this is 5 to 10 years away. Not counting on any contribution from C&C. Still has 99% of the SiC market. Laser to come June qt 2002 Gelcore and Agilent are both customers. Looking to sign longer term contracts like Siemans with their customers. No bad surprises for this qt. Cell phone market growing rapidly, no slowdown for Cree. Attraction of Xemod is that they are a low cost producer and are experts in packaging Neil Hunter is spending more of his time on M&A. Working on many black box contracts with DOD including radar.Can't release any info. This June's qt Cree will have a power device. Questioned Microsemi(MSCC) who was at the conference; Why did you strike a deal with Sterling(UTCI)?Ans.At the time we didn't know any better.Is Cree's SiC better to work with?Yes MCSS also ownes 10% of Xemod.I think some sort of a business deal may develope here. If you noticed I lost my password again. CC 1-800-521-5461 intl.1-303-267-1006 by: harvest344 10/3/00 8:05 pm Msg: 36638 of 36741 4:30 PM EST 10/12 Playback 1-800-625-5288 I.D.821301 messages.yahoo.com Re: Stephens power solutions conference by: harvest344 10/3/00 8:10 pm Msg: 36639 of 36741 Capital expenditure $110to$120 million, cash flow about $90 million. First use for the new Adm.building, The Annual Meeting. Employment today 750 by end of fiscal yr. 1000,need more scientest and engineers.