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To: tekboy who wrote (6890)	10/3/2000 9:48:05 AM
From: Pawhuska49	Respond to of 22706

it will usually be a mirage and will disappear over time Like the perceived value of some people's choice of alternative investment vehicle? mpw@likeFord,Chevy,orChrysler.com

To: tekboy who wrote (6890)	10/3/2000 9:51:53 AM
From: Dr. Id	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22706

Copernicus and Einstein--and Moore, for that matter--developed abstract models of how a certain kind of system was supposed to behave. They then asked, "what signs might there be in the world around me that suggest my model is a good approximation of reality?" When experimental data conformed to the predictions of the model, they and others gained confidence that the model was useful. Damn. Tekboy's been Mosherized. Dr.Id@takeyourintellectualmasturbationtotheotherthread.com

To: tekboy who wrote (6890)	10/3/2000 12:01:49 PM
From: Apollo	Respond to of 22706

Hey Mosherboy: When experimental data conformed to the predictions of the model, they and others gained confidence that the model was useful. That is how science works (or is supposed to work), and it's something quite different from looking at the data alone, without the benefit of any model, to try and find a pattern. If you do the latter, you may eventually end up with something that looks like a regularity, but it will usually be a mirage and will disappear over time. Speaking as a scientist, it's really instructive to hear from Policy Wonks how science is supposed to work. Boy, the things one learns on SI threads! ca@realscience.edu

To: tekboy who wrote (6890)	10/3/2000 12:05:47 PM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22706

TekEinstein: That is how science works (or is supposed to work), and it's something quite different from looking at the data alone, without the benefit of any model, to try and find a pattern. If you do the latter, you may eventually end up with something that looks like a regularity, but it will usually be a mirage and will disappear over time. Actually, since you seem to be in an expansive mood on how science works, and have touched on the topic of data dredging, as it relates to multiple looks at the same question, perhaps you can enlighten us as to the role played by use of the Bonferroni Method. ca@statisticalmethodsareabitch.edu