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Non-Tech : Conseco Insurance (CNO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. Pink who wrote (3304)	10/3/2000 2:49:35 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4155

From YHOO: " Smith Barney Devine's report is encouraging ". by: ReSwat (33/M/St. Louis) 10/3/00 11:30 am Msg: 76495 of 76524 messages.yahoo.com Devine's comparison of Nationwide at 9.6x 2001 earnings was instructive. Apparently, Nationwide is growing at about 15% per share. CNC will grow much faster than that and deserves a higher multiple. Why? Several reasons: First, Gary Wendt. (See GE Capital) Second, the change in accounting method for CNC Finance from gain-on-sale to portfolio method. The way I understand it, they had to start from scratch building a portfolio of loans at the time they made the switch. That means they had a huge distribution system, but zero portfolio value. On a percentage basis, their portfolio of loans will grow very quickly, as this large finance company dumps many many loans into the portfolio. Third, Nationwide is already an efficient company and has already cut many of their expenses. Their earnings have already stabilized. Gary Wendt hasn't even started cutting expense in the Conseco insurance divisions. When you look at Conseco's cash flow projections (which were conservative, according to A.M. Best), they projected that 2002 cash flows will be 60% higher than 2001 cash flows. Conseco is recovering from some problems and will grow very quickly in the next couple of years as it regains stability. In addition to ignoring all of this, Devine doesn't even mention the 66 million shares sold short. That is a huge factor to consider. No decent analyst would just ignore that fact. He's sticking his head in the sand. by: ReSwat (33/M/St. Louis) 10/3/00 11:30 am Msg: 76495 of 76524

To: Mr. Pink who wrote (3304)	10/3/2000 3:07:38 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4155

<font color=red>SmartMoney.com:" Colin Devine is a LOOSER ". SmartMoney.com: Colin Devine at Solomon Smith Barney:To Err Is Human... (…………now they tells us…………) Colin Devine : To Err Is Human... smartmoney.com September 1, 2000 smartmoney.com. The call: Colin Devine of Salomon Smith Barney wasn't too keen on the idea of AXA Financial (AXF), which is majority owned by French conglomerate AXA (AXA), trading at a 50% price-to-book premium compared with the U.S. life insurance group. So on Aug. 16, he downgraded the company's shares to Outperform from Buy . He especially wasn't sold on the notion that AXA warranted the richer valuation because of its 72% stake in American brokerage Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette (DLJ) — which Wall Street has seemingly always seen as a no-brainer of a take-out target. "The company's shares, "wrote Devine, " "have recently benefited over speculation regarding the sale of...Donaldson, Lufkin and Jenrette. We do not regard this as likely, as we believe that DLJ's financial services group, which produces roughly one-third of its earnings, has evolved into a core component of the overall AXF Group and central to AXF CEO Ed Miller's financial planning oriented business strategy. If a DLJ sale were to occur, we would in fact anticipate a negative re-valuation on AXF's shares back to their U.S. life peer group average." The reality: Wrong...and wrong again. In yet another surprising show of investment-bank lambada, Credit Suisse Group, Switzerland's No. 2 bank, agreed on Wednesday to take DLJ off AXA's hands — and pay it a spicy $13.7 billion for the trouble of having to dance alone. DLJ will now link up with Credit Suisse's investment banking arm, CS First Boston — a resounding response to No. 1 Swiss house UBS AG's (UBS) acquisition of PaineWebber (PWJ) two months ago. When all was said and done, shares of AXA Financial soared to $52, a full 13% above where they stood when Devine downgraded the stock. ================================================= Colin Devine: Wrong on DLJ and, WRONG on CNC, IMHO cheers TA