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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (37693)	10/3/2000 11:19:13 AM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

The last two times it didn't look like a downturn was in sight either. But forgive me for noting that, because I fully agree that it looks almost impossible that we will have a big downdraft in orders announced soon, as we did the last two times after bthe stock had already been cut in half. I'm totally perplexed. What we have all seen the last 3 months should make clear why guys like Buffett realize they can't pick the direction. I have no explanation why EMC, GLW and BRCM are still sky high, while AMAT and CSCO and JDSU have been battered. Those are pretty good examples, if you know the copmpanies well and know what internal growth rates management is expecting. Truly, as long as one could survive another 17 points, an amat shareholder would be better off that the stock goes down to 35 now, so everyone realizes this has gotten out of control and the stock price is adjusting for a complete meltdown that just isn't going to happen. A good size bounce should be in order. Edit: sebl and orcl too. Some of these are absurdly priced while amat and others suffer and they aren't seeing a business slowdown either. ARBA was at 160+ two days ago while Bvsn has been decimated. Edit: look at gmst. Look at the peg ratio. Its crazy. Sdli, as a result of the jdsu marger, is almost certain to end the year at over 370, yet has been driven under 300. Who in hell could figure this out BEFOREHAND? Coming up with a rationale after the fact is improbable.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (37693)	10/3/2000 11:21:01 AM
From: csmith	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

If some slow down signs do appear, do we crash to similar lows of the 96 or 98 downturn? That seems to be the risk now.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (37693)	10/3/2000 11:31:09 AM
From: Demosthenes	Respond to of 70976

Of all the semi equips, AMAT is down the most today. I think this is significant in that the market is telling us smaller companies have already found a bottom. Usually AMAT sets a precedent but not now. Some small equips are up while AMAT is down over 7%. None of this makes sense unless AMAT is overselling and the rest already oversold during the past month. Tougher companies like AMAT tend to fall last, but when they do, they take the small players with them. Not today. D