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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Techplayer who wrote (59787)	10/3/2000 4:23:33 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

tp, Do you think that AJC would make bullish statement before her firm has established their core positions? JXM

To: Techplayer who wrote (59787)	10/3/2000 4:28:15 PM
From: Benkea	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

"Batman and Abby both expect a late year run from their comments. they both mention the seasonal uncertainty of the market and the strong fundamentals of the tech sector." Or maybe they're firms had a little selling (tax-loss at that) left to do :-)

To: Techplayer who wrote (59787)	10/3/2000 7:42:29 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

I expect a late November to early December peak in the market. December into mid-January is another potential down period as is the period into March-April which may mark the ultimate low.

To: Techplayer who wrote (59787)	10/3/2000 8:08:25 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

WEEKLY LIQUIDITY UP DATE Monday, October 2, 2000 LAST WEEK, LIQUIDITY TURNS NEGATIVE $4 BILLION due to $7.5 billion of new offerings and $1 billion of redemptions in US equity funds. On the other hand, corporate investors decided they like cash more than stock at current prices, always a good sign -- but usually early. Last week, cash takeovers and buybacks rebounded - topping $6 billion each. The Investment Company Institute (ICI) reported August equity inflows of $23.4 billion, with $19.6 billion going to US funds and $3.8 billion going into International funds. The ICI also reported that cash on hand at US equity mutual funds at the end of August dropped to 4.4% from 4.8% the prior month. However, absolute cash remained unchanged at $175 billion. In other words, US equity funds invested every new dollar of cash received during August. BOTTOM LINE: WE STAY CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH. HOWEVER, REBOUND INDICATORS SHOWING UP. We stay cautiously bearish, even after four straight weeks of lower stock prices. The key is the European investor. In August, Europeans were buying US stocks and the US market rose. That stopped in September and the US market has been dropping ever since. A whopping new offering calendar last week is not helping. Fund redemptions are not yet big enough to signal a sentiment reversal often seen at the end of a down leg. However, stock buybacks and new cash takeovers are improving and those two often are early indicators. Thomson First Call's Bob Gabele tells us that his early reading of September data says that insider selling slowed in September. If that's so, then given the positive indicators of big buybacks and cash takeovers, we could be nearing a bottom.