To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (37768 ) 10/3/2000 5:06:21 PM From: Proud_Infidel Respond to of 70976 Semiconductor Monthly Sales Hits All-Time High of $18.19 Billion in August By Jennifer Barrett TheStreet.com/NYTimes.com Staff Reporter 10/3/00 4:56 PM ET Semiconductor sales have been setting new records every month since early this year. So it shouldn't have come as much of a surprise that global chip sales reached an industry high once again in August. What makes the Semiconductor Industry Association's latest report so significant, according to industry analysts, is that August is typically a slower month for sales. Instead, the association reported Tuesday that semiconductor sales surged to $18.19 billion this August, more than double last August's sales -- and three times the industry's typical trend-line growth. "That's just not sustainable," said Mark Edelstone, an analyst at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. "The growth rate has just been accelerating all year." Edelstone said the industry's fundamentals remain healthy, but he expects future reports will show the growth rate beginning to decelerate in September, with sales growth continuing at a slower pace through the end of the year. Nonetheless, Edelstone forecasts overall growth for the industry at 40% this year. That's higher than the SIA's forecast of 31% growth. Estimates by Eric Rothdeutsch, an analyst at Robertson Stephens, fall somewhere in between -- in the high-30s to 40% range. "August is typically the slowest month of the year, but shipments were so strong it's an indication of how strong demand is in general," said Rothdeutsch. "We believe there is still a lot of life left in semiconductor industry." Robertson Stephens also expects the semiconductor industry will enjoy 25% growth or better in 2001. Edelstone projects growth of 30% to 35% next year. Both estimates are well above the semiconductor industry's average annual growth rate of 15%-20%. "It's been a continuation of fairy tale conditions for the industry: a sharp undersupply coupled with strong demand," said Rothdeutsch. Industry analysts say they expect a slowdown in sales among some sectors this year, particularly as demand declines for PCs and cell-phone handsets. But demand is expected to remain robust in the industry's communications and analog sectors. "This is a remarkable year for semiconductors," said George Scalise, SIA president, in a statement. "We continue to see strong growth for chips in consumer, Internet, and telecommunications products." Chip Leaders Among the companies analysts say are poised to reap the benefits of those sectors' extraordinary growth are Xilinx, (XLNX:Nasdaq - news), PMC-Sierra (PMCS:Nasdaq - news), and Applied Micro Circuits Corp. (AMCC:Nasdaq - news). Rothdeutsch has a "strong buy" rating on Xilinx with a long-term target price of $120. Share have hovered around $90 lately but he expects the stock price to double to $160 or $170 over the next two years. Hoover's Online lists the San Jose-based company as the leader in the field of developing and manufacturing integrated circuits that customers can program to perform specific functions. Its chips are popular among electronics makers in the telecommunications sector. Still, despite Tuesday's report of strong semiconductor sales this summer, shares of Xilinx ended the day down $2.44, or 3%, at $84.69 Robertson Stephens also has "strong buy" ratings on shares of PMC-Sierra, a British Columbia-based company whose broadband communications chips can be found in a wide range of networking devices, and Applied Micro Circuits, which makes high-performance, high-bandwidth integrated circuits used primarily in communications products. The firm has no target price for either. Shares of PMC-Sierra ended the day down $13.50, or 6%, at $199.25. Shares of San Diego-based Applied Micro Circuits closed down $13.38, or 7%, at $178.44.