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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (75468)	10/3/2000 11:41:18 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Follow up analysis on the API numbers... More Api.....Baby you can drive my car by: supplyside_econ 10/3/00 6:02 pm Msg: 17283 of 17288 API crude stocks excluding PADD5 +1.5 mil bbls PADD 1 Heat stocks up .198 mil bbls PADD1 RFG Gas stocks up .773 mil bbls Implied gas demand 8.25mbpd vs 8.41 last week Implied Heat demand 4.06mbpd vs 4.08 last week Padd 1 High Sulphur Distillate (Heating Oil) 23.595 vs 23.938 last week and 48.369 last year Crude stocks 287.760 vs 306.075 last year Heat stocks 116.534 vs 144.992 last year Gas stocks 202.161 vs 201.724 last year Crude imports 9.278 vs 9.237 last week Product imports 2.273 vs 2.273 last week On access Nov crude -25 at 31.83 Nov gas -120 at 86.85c Nov heat +15 at $.9650 AGA guess for tomorrow: +60 - 70 bcf vs an injection of 62bcf last year and a 5-yr avg injection of 70bcf In real terms, the net change in gasoline was worse as revisions placed stock levels at 197.003, which last week were reported at 196.050. Hence add another 1 mil bbls. The API does make adjustments to their and also, it must be noted RFG blend is off-season so refineries are now making the easier gasoline. Nonetheless, I believe the DOE stock levels are lower, and I would not make a big deal out of this anyway. Which leads us to Distillates. Traders have been dying to see PADD 1 Total Distillates reach a 5-yr avg of 48 mil bbls. Well, at 39.781, they had expected a build of 2 mil bbls weekly a mth ago and it never occurred going into winter. I view this as a positive sign of tightness in the mkt. Last year PADD 1 Distillates were at a whopping 67.980 mil bbls. So you can see the pressure the mkt has faced since Aug. Unbelievably, PADD 1 High Sulphur(home heating oil) dropped although only .343 mil bbls. Maintenance has already hit the East Coast as refineries operated at a dismal 87.9%(how ironic and comical is that considering we over-worked them in the summer) vs 97.5%; close to 10% drop in the week. People want more product, but the math does not lie as the demand figures above suggest throughput has been maximized, why else have we not had large drops in crude as it is inputed for production. Basically, up 2 mil down 2 mil, hence, until demand wanes or capacity expands(capital investments by new players to expand plants that Majors are selling off), this mkt will remain somewhat tight regardless of backwardized pricing in crude. Gang the Oil Sector in general has been given the proper tools, and if your company is competitive enough, then moving forward should be rewarding. The 4th qtr will be both exciting and eventful, albeit some people can never get it together. Check your companies increased cash flow, and see if they are diligently increasing working capital needs for 2001 supply considerations. This is the time to capture the top side of sales, and everyone's plants, production, and staff can afford no excuses........Good Luck.....