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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (37776)	10/3/2000 6:05:07 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

Cary, I found 96 AMAT posts awaiting me, but no quantitative scenarios have been developed to support a buy/sell/hold decision. This is difficult to do, when numbers change so fast. Also, by basing your decision purely on quantitative data, you are in fact relying on historical data, which may or may not prove useful in determining a buy/hold/sell decision. It's a seldom said fact that buying stocks is probably more qualitative than quantitative. Past empirical data may prove useless in valuing a company with growing market share, growing margins, and additional markets in which it competes. Also, charts do not tell the story of a managements competence or lack thereof. Relying too much on numbers can cost one dearly. At this point, my simple Sell scenario is for nothing less than 160 by late '01, which I believe is definitely achievable. I am basing this simply on the fact the we will witness irrational exhuberance just as we are now witnessing irrational inexhuberance. Once the pendulum swings the other way, we will look at this as a bump on the road to Prosperity. As for specific numbers, it would be a pure guessing game, nothing more nothing less. BK