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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (34129)	10/3/2000 6:30:23 PM
From: wmwmw	Respond to of 50167

Yes, as a trader I have to follow the market. Next task is to find a bottom.

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (34129)	10/3/2000 7:01:25 PM
From: Paul Moerman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

>>if today was not the bottom, then we have much farther to go<< I think it's interesting to look at the nasdaq composite's trendlines - since the end of 1992, for example. On a log scale, if you plot a line beginning with the COMPX close at the end of 1992 (676.95) and use a slope of 21.5% per year, the result matches the index peaks in 1997 and 1998, and has become a support line in 1999. Extended to today, this trendline's value is about 3075. Therefore I think we could see the COMPX decline to that level without violating its channel. There's another (lower) trendline starting at the December 1994 low (719.05), which by using a slope of 24% per year does a nice job of catching the bottoms of 1996, 1997, and most of the lows in 1998. Currently, this trendline is at 2446. I think this would represent the ultimate support level if a worst case decline in the COMPX took out 3075 with lots of momentum. I'm hoping we have "only" 10% or so downside risk remaining in the NAZ, altho some individual stocks are much more richly valued than others and therefore could see much steeper drops I suppose. Today sure was brutal - I got creamed on NEON and AAPL! :-(