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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dealer who wrote (5334)	10/3/2000 7:05:26 PM
From: Sully-	Respond to of 65232

Momentum Picks: S&P to Bounce, Then Slide Further, Qualcomm Headed for $90 Toronto, ONT, October 3 /SHfn/ -- The markets diverged on Monday, with the non-technology stocks wanting to move higher and the NASDAQ [NASDAQ] considerably lower. The Dow [DJIA] had a reasonable day, shrugging off the tech blues while the S&P, with its higher tech weighting, was essentially flat. I believe that the picture developing on both the Dow and the S&P is that they have been in a corrective wave up for the past week or so. Both indices have lengthened their average short-term wave duration, so they are likely to continue to move somewhat higher. The TVAL reading on the S&P has reached its lowest trough level since the bottom of the medium-strength sell wave was reached in early February--good short term, but bad news longer term. I look for a bounce from these levels, but how high we go is another story. Given the breakdown in the momentum of the indices, I am looking for the S&P to trade into the 1,300s later this year after we get a bounce. <snip> - see chart at link.... Technology continues to look quite poor, but the selling has just not reached the intensity levels of bear trends. I am continuing to look for the NASDAQ to form a bottom around the 3,520 level, but then break back down towards 3,400 later this year or early next. <snip> - see chart at link.... One tech stock that did not participate to any great extent earlier this summer was Qualcomm [QCOM]. After soaring in the early part of 2000, reality set in and the high flyer was grounded. Interest, however, has since come back into the stock. In early July, when the company was $55, I wrote that the company had upside potential based on the wave ratio structure, and although it took some time for the buying intensity to increase, the stock now appears to be revving up. <snip> - see chart at link.... The short-term wave ratio structure looks very bullish here. The relative performance versus the NASDAQ over the past few weeks is very encouraging. Sellers do not appear eager to place short trades and earlier buyers are not short term in nature. If they were, we would like to have seen a much steeper wave to the downside. We may still have additional downside short term. The $65 to $67 level appears to be a likely point of bottom, but that will occur if the NASDAQ continues to slide and I believe that the selling short term in techs is coming to fruition. I expect to see QCOM jump. But since the short interest is less than one times average daily trading volume, I am not looking for exaggerated buying like we saw last year. I am looking for the stock to trade up to the $90 level within the next two to four weeks. Dave Poxon, formerly a proprietary stock trader, is now president of an institutional research firm that provides proprietary technical research services to institutions with in excess of $100 million of assets under administration. He writes exclusively on stocks for StockHouse.ca and StockHouse.com. David's proprietary indicators are components from an advanced proprietary technical theory he has developed through years of analysis and trading experience. The result is the Dynamic ALR Wave Theory™ or DAWT. This theory uses proprietary analytic methods to overcome the weaknesses of traditional technical analysis. The theory and its indicators have been designed to help predict turning points in securities more accurately and sooner than traditional technical tools. Click here for a description of his technical indicators. stockhouse.com Ö¿Ö