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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (11341)	10/3/2000 8:09:41 PM
From: Petz	Respond to of 275872

Tim, <if they were compltly coupled all AMD long term investors would be a lot richer now> *NOT!* quote.yahoo.com AMD up %160 year over year. Intel up 5%. Even for two years AMD is up 160%, Intel up 110%. Five years, well,...... (As of 10/3/00) Petz

To: TimF who wrote (11341)	10/4/2000 9:45:22 AM
From: 5dave22	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Quite a few medium-size block trades going thru this morning. Hopefully we'll sustain the AM run we've lost every day this week. With some help from our buddy, naz. Dave

To: TimF who wrote (11341)	10/4/2000 1:20:04 PM
From: jamok99	Respond to of 275872

twfowler, <<As for AMDs ties to Intel, I suggest the best thing is for Intel to do well and AMD to do better...because h$ll is likely to freeze over before WS decouples them.>> <<If they were compltly coupled all AMD long term investors would be a lot richer now. Are they only coupled when bad things happen to INTC?>> Yes, I think that's been one of the major problems - Good news for INTC has been perceived as bad news for AMD, and good news for AMD has been interpreted as better news for INTC. Altho I can't provide a link, I distinctly remember being amazed when AMD announced their astounding blow-out Q1 numbers, and one of the semi analysts being interviewed on CNBC being asked about it raised Intel's rating based exactly on this "logic". It's a strong argument, I think, for both 1. Why perception becomes as important as fundamentals, and the need for perception of AMD to change, by whatever means, if they are in fact ever to be appreciated for their accomplishments. Consistency is keeping their promises seems to me to be perhaps the best way to achieve this 'decoupling' if it can in fact be achieved. and, conversely, 2. If the fundamentals start to falter (e.g., missing their numbers or promises), then I'm really worried about this stock, as they have little of the 'goodwill' that kept INTC afloat for so long, despite clearly faltering performance. Which brings up a kind of funny question I've been wondering about - I think that as long as the business fundamentals remain strong, AMD can wait for this 'decoupling' to begin. And this 'window' has thankfully been extended from a few quarter's time to a longer period by Intel's mis-steps (e.g., mobo bugs, chip recalls, P4 delays, etc.). But it makes me nervous that eventually the 'window' may close, and the fundamental strength of AMD may wane before it gets recognized by the street, and the opportunity may be over. The funny part is, I think that's exactly what the 'know-nothing' street thinks - AMD's succeess is ignorable because the assumption is that in the end, Intel will crush them - if not sooner, then later. I hate to be put in that same basket, but I must admit that a part of me has worries about this. I hope those on this thread who believe that AMD has the good to compete effectively in the much longer run are absolutely right, as it means that the idea of a 'window of opportunity' is just beginning, rather than closing within a certain time-frame. Relevant to that, I think Crazy Doug's idea are spot-on in terms of waiting to see what exactly the future competition is (i.e., see what P4 actually offers when it is released), rather than assuming/justifying that it won't match up well to AMD's offerings. Well, this message is rambling a bit and certainly has a dose of Cassandra in it, but I wanted to put those points out there.