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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: manfmnantucket who wrote (7468)	10/3/2000 11:46:38 PM
From: p40warhawk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

MFN RE Your Post to Me You said, "hey p40! THE Norm retired when Cheers ended. But the black art of TA is all about giving a more quantitative sense to these concepts like "norm"..." ------------------ I agree. I have always said that I was using TA without knowing it. :>) I just articulate it in more "fundamental" terms. I also avoid getting tangled up in all those numbers and indicators. The deeper I try to go with TA the less positive returns I get, because there is just enough "crap shoot" in this game to undermine ANY system that purports to nail everything down. -------------------- You quoted me here: "The market is currently looking for any excuse to rally. That's because of the "law of gravity" as it applies to the stock market." Then you said, "now, now P40. The market didn't exactly see "no rate hike" as an excuse to rally today, did it? When investor sentiment is very optimistic, any negative content is ignored and rallies happen on news that might othertimes be interpreted as negative." --------------- As you know, the Fed did not remove the inflationary "bias." I think the market was hoping it would. ------------------ You said, "And last time I checked, the Law of Gravity read: "What goes up must come down." Not, "What comes down must go up." REPEAL the law of gravity, I say!" ------------------- It is true that Newton's Law of Gravity always pulls downward. But the stock market Law of Gravity pulls upward and downward depending on whether the current posture is above or below the "norm." The stock market Law of Gravity pulls toward the middle. ----------------------- Here you quote me again, "The only alternative is another 1929, and who really believes that?" You add, "Good point. Nobody believed the 1929 crash would happen before it did, either. But is that really the only other alternative?" ------------------ Well, there is not much more room to go downward for me. Remember, I am focusing on the internet market in general, and my holdings in particular--cmgi, enga, bvsn, edig, etc. -------------------- You said, "If this were to be a replica of 1929, we would have had much more downside in the weeks following April 17, instead of going Sideways for the Summer." ----------------- My port was down one half after the March-May massacre. Now I am down three fourths. ------------------ You quote me here: "My internet holdings have suffered a meltdown. If I could think of a more dramatic term I would use it." Then you ask, "How about "pop!"? That speculative bubble has burst, and my guess is it will not re-inflate any time soon." -------------------- Sounds like you believe the internet market is dead. Can we put you down officially as taking this position? --------------------- After being grouchy you said, "Not to be grouchy. I feel your pain, believe me. And the stupid moves I made were in spite of knowing better." -------------------- I understand. I don't feel overly brilliant either. But, as they say, you haven't lost until you sell. --------------------- You suggest, "Now a suggestion. If you're looking towards retirement. Look into liquidating holdings you are "hoping" upwards. Use the capital to sell puts and generate some income." --------------------- Never learned options, and am much too old to start now. I will keep dancing with the one who brung me. Appreciate your comments, but I will hold to my strategy of waiting this thing out. I believe 1. the internet is here to stay ; 2. it is in its infancy (meaning much growth ahead); 3. Cmgi is one of the industry's mainstays; and 4. when the turnaround comes, cmgi will be among those leading the way. If I am wrong, please buy some pencils from me. Best, p40warhawk