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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: High-Tech East who wrote (59815)	10/3/2000 10:16:27 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

LOL. I meant a cyclical high, not an absolute high. The three-month cycle high was August 26. The 20-week cycle low is October 13. I think we may have a double low before and after options expiration. The six-month cycle high is November 26. There is a standard deviation about the highs of about 2 weeks. I think the potential is there for the next high to be lower than the recent highs. The tail end of the nine month cycle occurs after November 26. December will be fraught with (1) tax-loss selling, (2) distributions by Janus, Invesco, Price, and funds, (3) more earnings warnings, and (4) potential for market to look ahead to much slower econ next year. I prefer the May low as the base since most of the major indices simultaneously troughed. The next March-April would probably also fit well with 1-year mutual funds returns probably looking very punk and sentiment being lowest.