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Gold/Mining/Energy : Swift Energy (SFY) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PuddleGlum who wrote (1237)	10/3/2000 11:41:20 PM
From: PuddleGlum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1602

Hmmm... 30% per year means $54 in a year, and $70 in two years. I'd be disappointed with those numbers, so let's increase that a tad to a more realistic, and hopefully still conservative, level of 40%, so Mark can remain happy with his very large position in the stock. pg

To: PuddleGlum who wrote (1237)	10/4/2000 9:37:13 AM
From: TRUE_TRUTH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1602

PG, I believe you meant to say OFFSHORE in the section below: "Kauri may extend onshore more than previously believed." Ie, did you mean to say that Bruce inferred that Kauri is a lot bigger than the 30 sq. Kilometers onshore and extends a lot offshore? I have also said that in notes about its onshore extent---that those reserve estimates did not even include offshore where the pay thicknesses are likely much greater but also perhaps deeper and more likely gas and condensates. As to why the faulting our of the UPPER TARIKI i Well B-1 might indicate other fault blocks to the south-southeast of B-1, all I think he is saying is that the UPPER Tariki got cut in half and pinched out at the location of the B-1 but that is somewhat likely and possible that the UPPER Tariki is not only in close proximity to B-1 North of B-1 towards A-1 where they will drill B-2 to hit both UPPER and LOWER Tariki, but that it cycles back on the South side of B-1 towards Kauri as well beyond the pinched portion where it was cut in half at the fault in the B-1 well. Think about the upper Tariki as play dough that gets cut in half and B-1 is located at the cut. There is little or no Upper Tariki pay at that location but there is still normal pay on both sides of the pinched cut area. So, think this indicates they may think that to the South in Kauri we will have UPPER Tariki, Lower Tariki, and perhaps most importantly Cretaceous sands, all up to 1000 meters or 3000 feet higher up structure than the B-1. Thanks for your intelligent conversation with Bruce and your post. I agree we won't know everything about Kauri in 6 months as it may take 20 wells plus to know that, but we will know a lot after 2-3 wells I believe. We already know the size of the structure from seismic imaging. What we need to know is presence of hydrocarbons, and which kind, gas, condensate, or oil. The first well logs will tell us how thick and what porosity we have in the pay, and which zones or targets are going to produce commercially. And we can learn a lot from the production tests that follow on the first 1-2 wells. After that, I believe we will know a lot more about how many wells, size of ultimate reserves, and can pretty well estimate how Swift will plan and develop the field. I don't need to see the reserves booked from the very last well 3-4 years from now. All I need to see is enough to conservatively predict what that will be. No crystal ball, but no blinders and head in the sand either. Truth