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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: p40warhawk who wrote (7492)	10/4/2000 2:44:35 AM
From: FLACK	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 100058

p40warhawk You said "Just so I don't misunderstand you, are you taking an "official" position that internets are dead and a thing of the past? Sure sounds that way. You may be right, but I think you are wrong. We shall see." I didn't say the internets were dead. Those are your words. I said "The NAS debacle is freeing up gobs of money to move into untarnished companies with real growth." Do you doubt that? Let's take CMGI, a stock that has fallen from 160 to 23 1/4 since March. This stock has had its bubble burst. Is there really any doubt in your mind? What would you call it? A dip? Now, does this mean that the internet is dead? Of course not! But I think the dream of easy riches in internet stocks has finally given way to reality. I don't think that it's the little guy who has given up the dream (they never do until it's too late) but it appears that the institutions have... at least for now. They made their money on the way up... and made it again on the way down while the faithful clung to what was left, which was hope. And until the institutions can beat the drum loud enough to get new investors excited all over again, I think these stocks will be stuck in a trading range leaving the little investors under water, locked down, afraid to get out and afraid to buy more. I saw the same thing happen to IOM (Kim Edwards) about three years ago and it took the faithful years to come to the realization that they had been had. I no longer remember the exact numbers but roughly IOM went from nearly nothing to 150 (slpit adjusted)in a year(?) and is now around $5 and was until recently around 3.50. I learned (I was long and loaded with calls) a couple of things from my IOM experience: Buy the stock but NEVER buy into the dream. Take profits along the way because you're not the one controlling the action. Never forget that they're after your money. And when the party is over, be satisfied and move on. I watched the nets run in the same fashion as IOM. I got the creeps. But they kept pumping these stocks until they managed one final screaming pop and then it was time to pull the plug. In this case they had done such a great job of selling the new dream that it took a while for this last leg down. How many internet businesses have completely died? Probably too many to count. How many will survive? As many as can prove that they can have sustainable income and growth. It's going to be interesting to watch this play out over the next year or so. And I sincerely wish you good luck, FLACK