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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: manfmnantucket who wrote (7499)	10/4/2000 3:09:52 AM
From: p40warhawk	Respond to of 100058

MFN There is certainly no need for you to apologize for your post. I took absolutely no offense at anything you said. In fact, I appreciated your efforts to be helpful. I have great respect for your judgement, and always have that feeling reinforced when I read your posts. I agree emphatically that there is a pessimistic side to my "optimistic" posts. Anyone who doesn't feel pessimistic in today's markets needs to wake up and smell the coffee. I am just trying to say that I don't think this is a permanent malady. I have been here too many times before in my investing life. This market had to do a 180 to get where it is today. That 180 was basically psychological, it did not reflect a major change in market fundamentals. I happen to believe that the market is just as capable of doing another psychological 180, given the personality and character of today's investors. The saddest song I have ever heard is entitled "I Sold Too Soon." Too many folks think in terms of days when they should be thinking in months or even longer. There is too much "tomorrow will be like yesterday" in our mentalities. There are few sure things in the stock market, but there is one--trends WILL change. You said, "The fact that there is not much more room downward for your or my portfolio will not prevent the market from going that way." I totally agree. But, I am less concerned about the market as a whole than I am about MY STOCKS. Therefore, most of my research and analysis is directed toward my stocks. Mine can't go much lower without going belly up, and I don't believe mine are in that kind of danger. You are familiar with cmgi's history, and you know that it usually dances to its own drummer. It does not always follow the market. That's a two-edged sword because cmgi has gone down since May while the market as a whole has been basically sideways. I respect your opinion that the day of the internet is over. Not sure we both put the same meaning to that statement. I have always said that 90% of the internet companies would not make it. There will be massive consolidation in the industry (buyouts, mergers, and Chapter 11's), and when the smoke clears we will have a few good companies that will lead the way in the greatest economic revolution this world has ever seen. The trick is to be in a surviving company after the smoke has cleared. AND, having fewer companies will make the industry stronger IMHO. You sound as if you might agree with some of that. You may mean--when you say the day of the internet is over--that the day when we have so many dot com's out there is over. With that, I am in full agreement. But I will never believe that the day of the INDUSTRY is over. I'd sooner say that the day of computers is over. I also agree with you that internets may not return to the highs we have seen before. But I insist that cmgi's current price is at least as ludicrous as it was when it was priced at 320. Same principle with enga and bvsn. This is why I feel that the "stock market Law of Gravity" is on my side with these stocks. You say, "It's these sayings that get me worried. They work while the bull is healthy. But bulls do die or rest for longish periods...." This is very true. But there are "sayings" in bear markets too, and they die when the trend changes. As for options, I can't even paper trade them because I don't know how they work. I don't know the rules. I know zilch about the pitfalls that you guys always talk about. I watched ZenWarrior lose 2 1/2 million dollars in a few weeks playing options (and margin), and he is knowledgeable in the field. It would take me at least a year of intensive study just to learn the rules of that game. Then I'd require much more time to get good at it. If I were your age, you can bet that I would be educating myself in all phases of investments. You have the time to do it, and my bet is that you and several others here are going to be gazillionaires someday. Keep your good posts coming. I always find them worthwhile. Best, p40warhawk