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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Krauss who wrote (37809)	10/4/2000 9:38:13 AM
From: willcousa	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Sounds like you have a broker who has such a powerful book of business that the firm cannot dictate to him. Beyond this he seems to have the integrity to put your interest ahead of his own. You are one of a lucky few. I know of an elderly woman who several years ago put 100,000 each in accounts for the schooling of her grandchildren. As of August (good market) the accounts were down 50,000 each.

To: Robert Krauss who wrote (37809)	10/4/2000 4:57:34 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Well, if your broker has done that well for you, I'd keep him. If your time horizon is at least 3 years, then his advice to just hold what you have (and buy more as the stock goes down) is probably good advice. Of course you are unhappy, if you were holding at the top, and still are. If you were trying to time the cycles, then you (obviously, in retrospect) missed the top. If you are a real LTB&H investor (not many people are, even the ones who claim they are) then this is just a short-term blip. If you don't need the money in the next 3 years, and you are not on margin or options, then you don't have to sell until the stock is hitting new all-time highs. I can't tell you exactly when that will happen (no one can), but I am 110% certain that that will happen (within the next 3 years). AMAT is not Boston Chicken, or even Amazon. It will come back (total certainty). On this thread, you have to realise that there are a variety of different investors, who are playing very different games. To use their advice, you have to know what they are trying to do. The posters are: 1. Daytraders/weektraders, who are playing the routine 20-30% dips on cyclic uptrends, and similar rallies on cyclic downtrends. It is very difficult to make money this way. 2. Cycle traders (most of us, including me), who try to buy the semi-equips when new fabs are being shut down, and sell just as chip ASPs peak. We tend to hold for 1-3 years. This is a quite risky, but the most profitable, method. 3. LTB&Hs, who buy on cycle bottoms (or dollar-cost average), don't get overleveraged, and never sell. This is the most reliable and least risky method to make money in AMAT. 4. Permanent Optimists, in Love with the stock, who post "Go AMAT!!!!!!!!" 38 times a day, no matter what the news or valuation. Some of these posters have a history of loading up at the top on margin, ignoring the warning signs all the way down, and getting a margin call at the bottom. Someday, (when I feel like pissing everyone off again), I'll post which catagory all the regulars on this thread fit into.