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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (75576)	10/4/2000 12:56:23 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

OSX here vs. the 97-98 cycle... I think we do get a significant OSX correction here; unless the Saudi's really surprise us & the next couple of API's are shockers; as the shakeout between the true believers & non-belivers is not yet complete. There is simply too much "currency" to take off the table here in the oilpatch. In 1997 - we had a huge shakeout at OSX 140 in October; the OSX fell hard to 80ish by January - bounced a bit; then rallied hard in April to May to 120; a nice 35-40 point run; but never returned to anything near the former high. 2 points. That Oct 1997 blow off occurred into sterling fundamentals & high sentiment - it was the exit of the momenteum players that caused a massive correction. I think we're going to see "potentially" the same type of shakeout - 115 is first support, but if the overall market implodes as I think it's a better than 50:50 bet of doing; then all bets are off & the OSX could easily penetrate 100 - even returning to a similar correction of OSX 80ish as we had in 1997-98. What I think will be different - is as long as the overall market correction is a slow & orderly stair step one step forward & two steps back type of slow bleed; the OSX could see a higher - high in 2001; but I think it see's its peak by May 2001. The high ? - fundamentally the OSX can handle 200 peak-cycle earningswise; but OSX 165 is a reasonable target with what I see as a Q2ish 2001; open realization & acknowledgement of inflation & a soft recession. The key will be to be patient here on the OSX - get re-positioned at OSX 115, or even 100ish depending on where & how rapidly the overall market correction unfolds; for another respectable 40-60 point upside OSX move. Averaging in slowly; back into the correction vs. making an all in one fell swoop re-entry is the ticket as well imo. I still have tight stops on "everything" here and am promising myself - that if I see what I think we may see; that I will discipline myself and go to 35%-45 Golds & 65-55% cash & dump all my oils here; as the economist from American Express is right; investors may spook out of oils - regardless of the fundamentals & commodity prices supporting much higher OSX levels here and we could see a 97-98 type of significant correction here - much lower than anyone thinks; just as it happened in a similar sentiment environment in 97-98. I know what's next.... yes; commodity prices are much higher here; but for the Street - it's not about what floor we jump out of - it's about falling in general.... Got some major negative Mo-Jo in this market... Black October once again ?