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To: Think4Yourself who wrote (75579)	10/4/2000 1:11:26 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

>> The big "Crash" scare tactics are based on a situation that no longer exhists. Stocks may still be somewhat overpriced, some ridiculously so, but the majority of the "speculative excesses" are gone. << I somewhat agree with that position. LU, INTC and MSFT seem reasonable on a valuation basis. However, high growth rates are still priced into to techs for that position to hold true. I do think growth will still exist in tech, but it may slow by as much as half due to a slowing US and global economy, slowing telecom spending, high energy prices, problems in Asia and the failure of some dot.com and other debt heavy startups. The IPO market which many tech stocks rely upon to raise additional cash could be dead for the foreseable future. I also think the internet will continue to expand, but will it continue at the pace it has been going at the last 3 years? Questionable. Maybe the growth slows by 10-25% from where it was. That decrease could be enough to send techs to new lows. In summary, there are too many potential negative catalysts for tech stocks. However, most of these catalysts will take time to become apparant. There will be many false rallies (trading ops to some).

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (75579)	10/4/2000 1:40:06 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

<<Stocks may still be somewhat overpriced, some ridiculously so, but the majority of the "speculative excesses" are gone. >> "Q" the PE of the S&P is still "double" of what it had been in the early 1990's. Merely returning to historic PE multiples of which the market has continually done over years & decades; will require a 50% haircut to the S&P here. Inflation and a recession - which is what the market will be referring to & acknowledging very shortly in 2001; as the inability of corporate america to hit its comps here going forward and the results of Oil bleeding thru to the rest of the econonmy will mandate a market PE contraction. What's the PE of the Nasdq 100 ? The entire bio-tech sector is speculative excess; earnings haven't changed there - earnings aren't the story - speculation is. The mindset of having to own a basket & hope you get the winning lotto ball/company that discovers the cure for cancer, or aids hasn't changed; only the valuation multiples assinged to the still clear & present speculation that has NOT been eliminated. Is NTAP cheap here ? JNPR ? EMC ? BRCM ? ORCL ? AMAZON may not exist in 3 years - is $34 cheap if it goes to zero ? JQP; once again - for the last time; GOLD is not about "scare tatics" - that's an ancillary benefit as it is certainly a safe haven in turbulent times; but the dollar at unsustainable highs & other curriencies at unsustainable lows - is a much, much bigger factor for Gold's upside; the undebateable "manipulation" of Gold by the ESF/FED & CB's to keep inflation fears quelched is another, the pure valuation story - many stocks at alltime, 5, 10 year lows is yet another. Personally; I believe we still; very, very much have what can only soberly be referred to as a speculative; momenteum oriented "equity" bubble. Valuation multiples are so extreme here that DOW 6500 and NAZ 1250 are not impossible; but DOW 8800-9500 and NAZ 2000-2350 will decimate investors and those are very realistic levels with merely the market using the "I" & "R" words (Recession & Inflation) within 2-3 quarters imo. History has continually humbled all who dared ignore her past lessons; this one will end no differently. Do we really think that we will NEVER see another Bear market in our lifetime ? - to believe that the normal historic reversion to the mean from alltime heights; will not be violent & severe is insane. Do all the daytraders with all of 18-24 mos experience think they know more than Buffet who refused to participate and formed a massive Silver position, than Soros & Druckenmiller who capitulated, than Julian Robertson who acknowledged the mania ? Are Buffet, Soros & Robertson wrong & are they right; or are they merely "temporarially" right - soon to be dead wrong ? Has merely being in the right place at the right time; for a brief moment in history; really made us smarter than those icons who have proved themselves over decades of all types of markets & all types of economic challenges & global events ? Are Buffet,Soros & Druckenmiller merely walking away in "1928" - only to let you have both the remaining upside of 1929 and the final result as well ? Are we really "that" arrogantly ignorant ? The market mavens are starting to turn here. John Bogle the founder of Vanguard has some sobering thoughts; a few technicians are starting to acknowledge some pretty heady downside targets. Let Oil spike this winter & the reaction will be violent. Outflows of mutual funds are coming - we have NOT seen individual tax loss selling yet & when the outflow/redememptions start - the correction will surprise most imho. This is a bubble; the only question is how much longer we can float it; not that it exists... Imho; being 35-50% cash here is prudent; so what - if one is wrong; they make 40% on 50% of their money... but; if they're wrong - the ones who are margined will have no money left, the ones in the speculative corners of the market will have pennies on the dollar and most will have half of what they had months ago... risk vs reward; risk matters. Pigs get Fat & Hogs get slaughtered... Bubbles are bubbles by any other name.