To: donald sew who wrote (31999 ) 10/5/2000 8:16:33 AM From: donald sew Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42787 OCT 5 INDEX UPDATE -------------------- Short-term technical readings: DOW - upper midrange approaching overbought SPX - midrange OEX - midrange NAZ - lower midrange NDX - lower midrange SOX - midrange VIX - 23.78, midrange PUT:CALL ratio - .68 Per my short-term technicals the overall market is in the midrange which is also confirmed by the VIX reading. So its in the "flip-of-the -coin territory. I had CLASS 1 BUY signals on the NAZ/NDX/SOX previously an they all fulfilled their minimum requirement, although the SOX was late. So the potential upside is equal to the potential downside. Our SHORT-TERM DIVERGENCE INDICATOR is now basicly neutral, just showing a slight positive divergence in the NDX, but not a strong indication. Our MID-TERM DIVERGENCE INDICATOR is still showing that the trend is intact to the downside. Although they are still in the test stages, I was please to see that it correctly predicted that the the DOW would lag the NDX yesterday, which did occur. If it continues to be accurate it will be helpful in determining not just direction but also SECTOR ROTATION. Using yesterday as the bottom where the NDX got as low as 3291, here are the resistance lines in play now: 1) 3500-3520 - horizontal support 2) 3580-3635 - horizontal support 3) 3616 - 38% FIBONACCI REBOUND LEVEL 4) 3822 - 62% FIBONACCI REBOUND LEVEL Im still expecting more upside in the NAZ/NDX for the short-term, but with the DELL news last night - lets see what happens now. Still feel that this rebound should be small and that the selling should resume within 3-4 days, and could intensify to the downside, since the VIX is still relatively quite low, recent LOWER LOWs produced, and the "3 BLACK CROWS" on both the NAZ and NDX, and since our DIVERGENCE INDICATOR is still showing that the DOWNTREND is still intact. I will become less bearish if this rally can take the NDX to the 3900 range. As for my mutual fund trades, Im now biased to the LONG side in the ratio of about 65/35, and about 87% cash. Only in the USPIX(short-NDX) and UOPIX(long-NDX). I feel that is better to also state it in terms of percentages for a better understanding towards my risk management. Although I am biased to the long side, theres not alot of money riding on it.