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Non-Tech : Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. (KKD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (558)	10/5/2000 12:21:25 AM
From: Kevin Podsiadlik	Respond to of 1001

One thing people keep forgetting is that Krispy Kreme is NOT as ubiquitous as one who lives close to one might think. It's a long, long way from "one in every town" like McDonald's or even 7-11 (whose market cap KK rivals and may have exceeded at one point). Just as a local sample, there are two KK stores in all of DFW and neither is easy to find. Boston, Philadelphia, and Seattle have none. There isn't as much "there" there as some people think. I think KREM itself put out revenue forecasts not even coming close to projecting 100% y/y growth. We're looking at a PE to growth ratio of something like 4 here. There is nothing saying KREM can't eventually achieve the greatness everyone seems to think is its destiny. What I am saying is that it is dollars to doughnuts (pardon the expression) that there will be an opportunity to buy KREM much cheaper than the current $89/share level within the next twelve months. (No wisecracks about splits. Right now the KREM insiders don't even dare do that lest it upset the supply-demand curve for the stock before they can sell.) Even AMZN eventually fell to earth. Someday KREM will too.

To: TimF who wrote (558)	10/6/2000 12:54:07 AM
From: Jon Koplik	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1001

Re : comparing Krispy Kreme to Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) (semiconductor chips), Applied Materials (AMAT) (semiconductor manufacturing capital equipment), Outback Steakhouse (OSI) (trendy restaurants), Papa John's (PZZA) (pizza take-out chain), Wendy's (WEN) (on and off "dying" competitor to McDonald's) -- AMD is still an "also-ran" to Intel. No one can reasonably claim that AMD may "crush" Intel. KREM may crush Dunkin Donuts. AMAT -- ever heard of a company called GCA Inc. ? Back around the late 1970's (I am 42 years old), GCA was THE leader in semiconductor capital equipment. Their stock was sky high; everyone loved the company. Then -- a few things happened (I do not remember exactly what), and GCA stock PLUNGED, and the company either went bankrupt or was quietly merged into some other company (with the stock down 99% or more). High tech is a dangerous business. Doughnuts is not a dangerous business. OSI -- where I live (South Florida, in a town of 100,000 people or so) -- if I want to go to a "trendy" restaurant, I could go to an Outback Steakhouse. I could also go to : Chili's Friday's Ruby Tuesday With a little driving, I could go to : Bennigan's Fuddrucker's Houlihan's Plus -- there are lots of local places here that also compete with Outback Steakhouse. If I want a non-grocery store donut, I can go to Dunkin Donuts, or go to one of those gas stations around here that get KREM donuts trucked in each morning from Tampa. As I have stated previously, after tasting my first Krispy Kreme doughnut a few months ago, it is clear that I will NEVER purchase another Dunkin Donut for the rest of my life. There is no point. They (DUNK) are not as good, but they are still expensive. PZZA - my observation has been : pizza chains come and go (with the exception of Pizza Hut and Domino's). So, with PZZA, you've got a company perceived as in competition with two huge, long-term survivors, AND ... in an industry where a lot of companies have never prospered. WEN - I think Wendy's is doomed to be either a perpetual weak # 3 competitor in their business, or -- disappear at some point. *************************** Krispy Kreme can and probably will eventually make Dunkin Donuts turn into the Moxie of the doughnut business. (Moxie was the clear and undisputed leader in the soft drink business if you go back many decades. Now, all it is good for is some neat collectibles you can buy and sell on eBay). Dissecting KREM's numbers for sales and earnings right now to determine a fair price for the value of the corporation is a bit risky. They are in a gigantic expansion mode. They are capitalizing on over 60 years of goodwill and "buzz" that has been built up, and are now (with the proceeds of their initial public offering), going after the U.S., and (probably later) perhaps a lot of the rest of the world. Your comment : "If you think KREM is going to grow tremendously from here it could potentially turn out to be a good investment" ... I think this "says it all." Unless management really screws up, OF COURSE Krispy Kreme is going to grow tremendously from here. I do not think anyone will ever get a chance to pick up shares of KREM cheap. I have been accumulating shares from the 60's on up to the 90's. I wish I had started sooner. Jon.