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To: gnuman who wrote (56723)	10/5/2000 8:57:53 AM
From: sylvester80	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Gene, Semico has been wrong on their numbers so far and especially in DDR. In any case, the numbers for 2000 are so small that we would not know till 2001 is half way through on who was right. BTW, do you have any links on DRAM statistics over the last couple of years? For example number of bits sold for each (EDO, PC100, PC133, Flash, etc...) for each MM? Thanks.

To: gnuman who wrote (56723)	10/6/2000 5:56:25 PM
From: Dave B	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

If you have any knowledge of marketing, you must be aware that a major function is to understand future requirements for products. They work continuously with the consumers to understand their future needs, and plan products and production accordingly. (Additionally, they have some impact on the decisions of the consumers). As a marketeer, I can tell you that egos and other issues get in the way far more often than you'd like to believe. Plus, people at companies are certainly fallible and have their own biases. I often find it hard to believe the conclusions different people draw from the same set of "facts". Who do you think is better at forecasting, the memory producers or the market analysts? The analysts, by far. The people within an company rarely have the ability to get enough information to see the big picture. Analysts do. As an example, while consulting for an HDD company, I saw forecasts of system shipments from the systems vendors that, when you added them up, came to about 150% of the number of PCs that were actually shipped. Each of the systems vendors thought that they were going to grow their market share (duh!). No one ever forecasts that their business is going to shrink, but it has to happen to somebody! The analysts can take the information they get from each individual company and massage it appropriately to come up with more realistic estimates. (p.s. The Sales organization at this HDD company forecasted their own HDD shipments based on these aggregated forecasts and couldn't figure out why they were always short of target. I put together a model for the Marketing folks that factored in the accuracy of the systms vendors, as well as overall market forecasts, and it ended up being much more accurate than the Sales version.) I would believe the In-Stat, Dataquest, and Semico estimates before I'd believe Micron or Samsung. Dave