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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stsimon who wrote (75670)	10/5/2000 12:36:12 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

Sub $20 OXY, $9 GLBL, $14 NSS, $22 MRL, $35 ATW soon ? ...getting close to some really tempting buy levels. $30 Oil & $5 NG and perhaps sub $20 OXY ? - simply amazing... actually; I'm still an over-weighter to the Drillers & a few later cycle value plays in service vs. the E&P's - I see the value, I know the fundamentals are there; but once O&G price estimates for 2001 come under 2000 levels and these companies post lower sequential eps - it's all over; except an occassional production growth story. Only another monster OSX leg toward 200 will carry the E&P's along with it to higher highs imo. We may have seen the E&P highs allreay for 90% of these companies. They'll bounce from where we end up here; but their highs will be determined by O&G price models looking 9 mos out... I'd rather be in the drillers; especially $35 ATW, $22 MRL, $35 DO that are at a minimum 50% upside movers from those levels; versus betting on commodity prices - which will rule the upside to the E&P's. The drillers will continue to move up on dayrate & rig utilization catalysts to higher earnings even into the face of declining O&G prices. ..tempting here; I set some buy limits 3-7% below today's prices & am turning off the TV & the monitor... otherwise; I won't resist temptation to start nibblin here (VBG) PS NEM holding & defending $15 well; if it holds today & tomorrow - it's bounces to $18-$20 within days imo. PSS - CNBC talking about refiners diverting supply to Europe for higher profits vs. easing US demand... Ive continually heard about the poor physical plant conditions at US refiners; with delaying scheduled maintenance here; all we need is a big refinery to go out....looks like SPR release wont even make it to the market untill late Jan even in an ideal environment & now watch it go to Europe ! - classic ! ....later ~