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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EACarl who wrote (37894)	10/5/2000 5:53:20 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

re: "the strange thing is, this cycle, the price cycle ended about 7 months ago but the fundamental semi cycle has not ended. Bookings have continued to rise.": Yes, that is very odd. By 6 months after the stock price peak, I'd expect confirmation (lagging) that the cycle is over, from steadily falling bookings. And that isn't happening. re: "the huge premium that AMAT carries puts it in a more vulnerable category.": I don't think so. I think AMAT is well along in the process of doing to semi-equip what Cisco did to network equip. That is, they target niche after niche, gradually building a one-stop-shopping product offering that is unmatched in the industry. And, once they have that dominance, the barriers to entry are insurmountable. That means permanent high margins. I think the pattern in this industry is that small companies (that dominate small niches) are going to, one by one, get eaten or run over my AMAT. And the relative valuations, of the sector's stocks, are reflecting that.