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To: LLCF who wrote (24922)	10/5/2000 2:30:20 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 436258

i can't access the link...if Mc Clueless gets the top job, you can prepare to use frizzlebuns for sealing leaking roofs...same way the ruble ended up. gold price update (BL refers to the 'black line' that denotes the intraday spot gold price on kitco's gold chart): Date: Thu Oct 05 2000 14:18 Brian W. Pascal (.........and here's the Black Line Update.......) Good afternoon. This is Yur Flyisopen with the BLU. The black line was flattened by a steam roller during intraday trading today and speculators had trouble distinguishing it from your basic roadkill. Line crews were rushed to the scene but all the efforts to revive it only produced a brief period of conciousness where the line muttered "I wanna see Kevorkian". I'm Yur Dorkismissing and this has been the BLU....

To: LLCF who wrote (24922)	10/5/2000 2:35:39 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Schansinger: It's a combination of both. Individual companies' circumstances are being exacerbated by an increasingly difficult macroeconomic environment. The tendency is always to dismiss each warning as a company-specific one -- bad management, product cycle difficulties, etc. -- but when you start to see disappointments manifest themselves across industries, one has to start to look at the bigger picture. I don't want to blow this out of proportion -- conditions are generally good, and the economy is good. But we're going through a pretty significant adjustment process. Think about where we were six months ago: We had high stock prices, strong economic growth, rising profit margins and terrific earnings. A lot of that has changed. Oil prices and labor costs are causing pressure. I read today that HMO prices to corporate customers are going up. Earnings growth is slowing, and prices and valuations are going to have to come back a bit. Everyone always says that a rising tide lifts all boats; well, a falling tide exposes some pretty serious shortcomings. One thing that's pretty interesting is that September, in particular, seems to have fallen off a cliff for a lot of these companies -- Eastman Kodak, Rockwell International (ROK:NYSE - news), priceline.com. Something's going on there. Hobson: So what does this all imply for the fourth quarter? Are the estimates that are out there too rosy? Schansinger: Yes. You can look at it from the top down or the bottom up [from the point of view of equity strategists or sector equity analysts]. From the top down, the strategists seem to have more of this [negative stuff] factored in. But when you look at it from the bottom up, there are still some pretty fancy numbers out there. Estimates both for the fourth quarter and next year still have further to go on the down side. The bias for stock prices is lower. Again, I don't want to give a terribly negative outlook. The economy is still reasonably good, and corporate profits are growing at a reasonable rate. But expectations and valuations got way too high. We need to downshift to a slower growth, hopefully more sustainable growth scenario. DAK

To: LLCF who wrote (24922)	10/7/2000 8:19:40 PM
From: Thomas M.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Did Luc make a quick jaunt over to Houston? -g- (from Doug Noland's latest) <<< This question came at the end of recent McTeer speech in Houston, on “The Role of Technology in the U.S. Economy.” “The question I have for you as a member of the Federal Reserve and all the Federal Reserve Governors is simply this: In the New Economy, I will use Microsoft as an example, companies are more dependent on intellectual capital as opposed to financial capital, unlike an Old Economy company like Exxon, where they obviously need a lot of intellectual capital too, but financial capital is the constraint. The question is, though, as the economy evolves into the New Economy and financial capital seems to be less important – companies are using just in time inventory, managing working capital needs better, so on and so forth. Why is it that we seem to have excessive credit growth? Why is it in a 6 or 7 percent nominal GNP economy M3 consistently grows 10 to 12% a year. Why is it the two largest government sponsored enterprises, for instance Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are exploding their balance sheets. Why is it that the Federal Reserve, at the hint of any crisis, ‘97, ‘98, Russian defaults, Long Term Capital Management, Y2K, the Federal Reserve explodes its own balance sheet to facilitate another of explosion of credit in the economy. It seems like to me there is a disconnect because the economy seems to require a lot of financial capital to continue to grow. It seems the New Economy paradigm would argue that financial capital would be used ever more efficiently and require less credit on the part of the Nation’s central bank.” >>>