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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (4769)	10/5/2000 10:14:09 PM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

BB, that doji on the NDX today is frequently seen as a simple pause midway through a move, in my limited chart watching experience.

To: bobby beara who wrote (4769)	10/6/2000 1:56:12 AM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

bobby, as you well point out, Rydex sentiment numbers is picking up what the put/call ratio is not... Namely, in October 1998 they were fighting it on the way up with heavy assets on the Bear side and now they are fighting it wanting to stay long on the way down heavily weighted long in the face of red flags everywhere... On a hypothetical basis... I did a quick scan the month/week before the 87' crash and both bank stocks as measured by C and brokerage stocks as measured by MER were very strong and showed no discernable slippage until the day of the crash. Both MER and C are relatively strong now just as thery were in '87 prior to the crash. MER a break below the 100 day MA 62 7/8, C 51 3/4 the 100 day MA which has good latitude. MER for me is key barometer. A break of MER 62 7/8 1 close and lights out. UTIL only portrayed 1 day advance notice that was only slightly detectable. Todays UTIL action and a nasty close confirms yesterday that the break was real. We closed at UTIL 375 down another 7 (DJUA)and this clearly breaks the 13/25 day MA... UTIL 368 the 50 day MA must hold (UTIL 366 the final elasticty level on 1 close only)or blow out all long pos if you have any... HWP is ugly, IBM is losing traction. JPM had its first close below 160 in over amonth. A second close below 160 and goodnight... Rydex NDX Long OTC is holding relatively firm but it is SPX Long in both funds where Bulls are finding comfort... This is obviously a contrary indicator negative if you are a Bull... Rydex SPX sentiment numbers alone tell me SPX 1,380 test is on deck very soon. Today SPX 1,440 resistance held again as SPX closed up 2 to SPX 1,436 and tomorrow is the last straw to get above this level on the close for bulls or we will break hard and fast... Once NDX 3,580 was out and SPX 1,440 confirmed I have turned Bearish the Bulls are running out of safety net shelters to flock to... Bulls need a mounting assault tomorrow or else... CAPITULATION CITY>>> Best Regards, J.T.

To: bobby beara who wrote (4769)	10/7/2000 3:36:13 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Rydex Total Assets Update for Friday, October 6th: Regular Series: SPX Long - NOVA 413 Million SPX Short- URSA 310 Million NDX Long - OTC 2,666 BILLION NDX Short- Arktos 144.4 Million XAU Precious Metals 25.7 Million Biotechnology 622 Million Money Market 1,466 BILLION ********************************************* Dynamic Series (200% correlation to index) SPX Long - TITAN 88.9 Million SPX Short- TEMPEST 19.6 Million NDX Long - VELOCITY 69.0 Million NDX Short- VENTURE 57.5 Million ************************************************ Let me work backwards first with the SPX dynamic series... SPX Longs show no capitulation whatsoever and this is simply baffling. Maybe it is because longs are waiting for the bounce to cushion the losses. This mentality is like a gambler who continues to lose and double up his bets only to magnify the already grave situation. Dynamice Series is 200% correlated to the index so in this case if the SPX was down 1.9% you can double this loss to 3.8% in dynamic series. The last time SPX dynamic series was inverted where the spx bear funds (tempest)total assets were greater than the spx bull (titan) fund was on september 15th when the SPX closed at SPX 1,465 after booking SPX 1,520 on september 1... The regular series is older money and SPX Long NOVA Fund is finally showing capitulation in total assets as it has not reached these low asset levels since I have been keeping track. Looking at NOVA total assets alone, it would suggest we are ready for a hard bounce on monday... But when you add SPX Short URSA into the mix we see assets at a paltry 310 million. It was at 327 million on 9/26 when SPX closed at SPX 1,427. Today we closed at SPX 1,409. The last time short fund URSA booked 2 consecutive closes above 300 million in total assets was on 8/8 thru 8/10 when the range was 312-325 million total assets. SPX closed at SPX 1,482-SPX 1,460 in this 3 day period. The last time we closed at 350 million in total assets in short bear ursa fund was on 7/24 when SPX closed at SPX 1,464. The highest total asset level in URSA over the recent past was booked on 5/17 when total assets spiked at 421 million when SPX closed at SPX 1,447. What does all this sentiment picture tell us? The money still doesn't want to play the short side in mutual funds and is very uncomfortable making the switch to the short bear side... The same can be said in NDX Short Arktos Fund vs the billions in the NDX Long OTC Fund... Again, I reitterate, In October '98 Rydex SPX URSA Short assets were greater than SPX Long NOVA total assets and the "invested money" was fighting the primary trend on the way up in the midst of the correction. Now, in Oct '2000, the money is fighting it on the way down as the money continues to play long in the face of lower lows booked on SPX.. This spillover effect will be quite pronounced in NDX if NDX breaks the psychological NDX 3,000 level on a close... NDX closed at NDX 3,312 today... It came close to breaking NDX 3,000 close on May 23 when NDX closed at NDX 3,023 and NDX Long OTC total assets booked 2,477 BILLION total assets. This is the magic number for the hard break.. I will analyze the support and resistance levels for the DOW, SPX, NDX, BKX, UTIL, IIX et al in another post later this weekend and try and post new anticipated levels to look for during the coming week... Best Regards, J.T.