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Pastimes : ASK Vendit Off Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vendit™ who wrote (14557)	10/6/2000 6:44:52 AM
From: Guardian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19374

another caution on market - old but well stated 5. Is a Recession Imminent? (SWC) Signs point to a recession in 2001, says technical analyst James Stack. He notes that for the past 80 years, over half of all recessions began the year after a Presidential election. Warning flags that tell him a bear market began with peaks in the DJIA on January 18, 2000 and the Nasdaq on March 13. Another bearish sign is Stack's "Gorilla Index," comprised of leaders like Microsoft, Worldcom and AT&T; the index recently traced a downward head and shoulders pattern. "Bull markets end in exhaustion," Stack says. To measure exhaustion, he looks at advance/decline lines to gauge market churn, or sideways movement. Stack reports 23 consecutive days of churning that ended on September 16 with a 160 point drop in the DJIA. In addition, all three of his supporting indicators point downward. "These are not the kinds of odds we like to bet against," Stack says. Stack's model portfolio is mainly in cash, but he also holds some small defensive positions. These include Stillwater Mining (SWC), a key producer of palladium. The metal is prized for its high conductivity, and it is a favorite in making cell phones, laptops and other high tech products. Nearly every new car uses palladium in its catalytic converter, and the rise of vehicles driven by fuel cells would also drive up demand. For more on James Stack's advice see "Complete Market Analyst and Mutual Fund Advisor," September 29, 2000, InvesTech Market Analyst and Mutual Fund Advisor. James Stack uses technical and monetary tools to recommend stocks and mutual funds. For a FREE 30-day trial go to: investools.com