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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff Jordan who wrote (34484)	10/6/2000 11:37:40 AM
From: TWICK	Respond to of 50167

Thanks Jeff. Good work done on stats and info by Hahns. Twick

To: Jeff Jordan who wrote (34484)	10/8/2000 11:24:56 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

The break of 1415 on SPX and 1436 on SPZ is a real teechnical damage, market has not seen this low since May, now the gate is opened for 1382 support and if as Hahn has highlighted the weaker hands with lot of margin can be forced to close the positions,even VIX is not at the level where we can think of a bottom, I agree with these points, for me I will see the action today, this May low needs to be broken today also, the two day test continues. I thought on Friday that 1415-16 area would hold it did not as new annoucments from internet related companies took IIX and DOT well below the year low on the later. I had in the morning taken out my protection that in hindsight looked a premature decision, I thouhgt that 1413 test would suffice I should have kept the target a little higher to blow out the puts, now I did not add any I thought thepremiums were too rich and if it is a trap for a day I should nt be part of it.. I will like to see market closing above this 1415-16 area, as I think that employment report contained below expectations rise in earnings and manufacturing jobs had shown decline, in this kind of environment the only thing that can dent the third quarter corporate earnings would be $ strength many companies like INTC and DELL AAPL have forewarned and possibly if you discount that the economic environment is feasible for continued non-inflationary expansion.. I would assume that 1400 teat on SPZ is on the cards if we are unable to bounce form here we hve possibility of a full 24 point move from here on SPZ and a long put option play on 1380 ot lower puts can give some decent returns however to avoid whipsaw I will only short below 1417 and cover at 1407, I will like to concentrate more on close if the market is closing weak I will add on the few positions as pure hedging, I don't think that this will be a very profitable trade as possibly it looks like easy money, on Comp 3380 remains a kind of mini-resistance and 3455 as a point of reversal for a test of 3700 area. Key index for me remains IIX today and SOX, if we have to see some stability at these levels and if the break is a false break below 1415 area on cash these indexes need to show a good recovery, a new low in DOT can open the door to panic selling in DOT that can impact IIX too, so keep your eyes at the two indexes that have the ability to hit Comp hard.