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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (6099)	10/6/2000 12:18:28 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

a great show on Discovery last night on medieval castle assault weapons they focused on a big rock throwing weapon called "trebouchet" decades later the cannon put the treb out of business the trebouchet worked like a catapult, only bigger cantalever slingshot threw 250lb rocks or junk on fire some Welsh castle was assaulted, surrendered to England's King Edward engineers were highly respected warriors, but not in society French and American carpenters built two major types one levered by 16000 lbs of lead rings other levered by 20000 lbs of loose rock in huge basket anyone see this? I couldnt turn the channel / Jim

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (6099)	10/6/2000 12:18:57 PM
From: Voltaire	Respond to of 65232

Agree in general but even if what you say does not manifest itself TOO MUCH to the negative side you will then see the Houses start rationalizing all the negative you now hear. THERE IS NO SINGLE CATATSROPHIC CATALYST and we naturally head up. Since the INTC announcement, no one has wanted to step up and be THE NEXT DAY FOOL and therefore they are waiting for the warning period to end. Will be like day and night. V

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (6099)	10/6/2000 1:47:19 PM
From: T L Comiskey	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Jim...re DELL...... So many Options...so much Dough...Mikey's Smiling... \| \| \| \| \| Dell's credibility gap widens By Dan Briody Redherring.com, October 06, 2000 When it comes to assessing the health of Dell Computer (Nasdaq: DELL)'s business, it's safe to say that Michael Dell is not exactly an unbiased source. Perhaps that's why the high-profile CEO failed to mention that Dell's revenue growth was slowing two weeks ago after Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) shocked the market with a sales warning. Or maybe he's just a glass-is-half-full kind of guy. Either way, Wall Street endured the latest in a string of big-time tech warnings when Dell dropped its bomb on Wednesday night, indicating slowing sales and an earnings shortfall for the fourth quarter. The company issued a release stating that demand in Europe and the small-business market were weak, and revenues for the third quarter would be 3 percent below expectations. Even worse was the news that the company was not confident the fourth quarter would be much different and predicted that earnings could fall 1 or 2 cents short of estimates. Presumably, the bad news was upsetting to Michael Dell for many reasons, not the least of which was the fact that only two weeks prior, Mr. Dell reassured the investing public that all was well in the PC business, specifically in Europe. Mr. Dell was quoted in a Reuters article on September 22, the day after Intel's warning, saying "We believe 30 percent [revenue growth] is very achievable," and "we're expecting our business will be up in Europe again in the third quarter, even though the market may not be up." NO SHORTAGE OF DISAPPOINTMENT Maybe he believed it. Maybe he just didn't know any better. To be fair, it's not unusual for market conditions to change unexpectedly, forcing a company to revise its estimates. But these kinds of changes don't typically come about in two weeks. And considering that Intel already indicated to the market that there were problems in Europe, this shouldn't have been unexpected either. Regardless, it's not a particularly good sign for Dell, and the stock fell 10.6 percent on Thursday following the warning. Investors have been turning away from Dell like jilted lovers for months, and the successive warnings from Intel, SCI Systems (NYSE: SCI), and Apple Computer (Nasdaq: AAPL) have just made matters worse. Since mid-July, Dell has lost more than half its value, tumbling from $53.56 on July 17 to Thursday's close of $25.19, its lowest level since October 1998. At the heart of the disappointment is a pattern of poor guidance the company has given to the investment community. Wednesday's warning marks the second time this year that Dell has revised its forecast downward. At the outset of its fiscal year, Dell told analysts that 40 percent growth for the year was attainable. Even though the math didn't make sense -- with growth like that, it wouldn't be long before Dell was bigger than the market itself -- investors bought into it because it was Dell. Not long after the company revised the number to 30 percent. On Wednesday, they shaved a couple more percentage points off, saying 27 percent was more likely. DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE Because of Dell's direct-sales model, the financial community relies heavily on guidance from management. With other PC companies, analysts can look into the various distribution channels to gauge the health of the market, but Dell's statistics are all kept internally. That's a tricky situation for analysts, which is why UBS Warburg analyst Charlie Wolf chose to disregard Dell's guidance early in the year and downgraded the stock in February. "As analysts we are paid to make anticipatory calls on things, and if all we do is repeat what management says to us, we are not doing our jobs," says Mr. Wolf. "So I don't spend that much time listening to the companies." As for Dell's once high-flying stock, it is now trading at just 20 times its fiscal 2002 earnings estimates, if those projections can still be believed. Investors must now be wondering if Dell has disclosed everything, or if there may be more bad news yet to come. Given recent history, it would not be altogether surprising if Dell had to reset that pesky revenue-growth number one more time before the year was over. And if that happened, it would further devastate the stock, not to mention Michael Dell's credibility.