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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Yaacov who wrote (161842)	10/6/2000 12:41:44 PM
From: mepci	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Re: mpci, no offence, I don't like people like you and Kimble bullshit the rest of us!! You totally misunderstand the purpose of these message boards. We all express our opinions. It is what you see in them is what you get in these messages. I probably lost more money than you in this fall, and I am sure Kemble a lot more. I donot use any offensive language, nor do I expect you to. Have a nice holiday and SHALOM.

To: Yaacov who wrote (161842)	10/6/2000 5:51:08 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Respond to of 176387

Yaacov TOmorrow is Yom Kipur and I don't want to loose my temper, but sometimes you guys do exaggerate! Dell has disappointed its loyal investors, common mortals like myself (your are exculded!) Q after Q. They have excuses for everything! If it is not Y2K, then it is Europe, and it goes on and on! The have to admit it, they are just box makers, and there is a crisis in the sector. They have no market share in Europe, so they should stop lying to people!...Myself, I keep my shared of Dell and take wait. The same thing I have done with IBM, and CPQ. But I don't like people like you and Kimble bullshit the rest of us!! Yaacov, we've all made mistakes. Michael Dell included. I don't know who deserves the greater blame, me for trusting in Micheal's "healthy sales contest" and three days later issuing a warning, or blame myself for falling pray to schemes beyond both our control. As for Kimble, he's an obvious eternal optimist. There's no crime against optimism. Kimble was as worried as everyone else when Dell's price fell to $35 (from private mail). Kimble chose not to express his worry publically. Does this make him a bigger bser? The charts were quite plain that institutions were involved in heavy distribution of the shares given the average share block size being traded. We either believed our eyes, or had longer term faith beyond our eye sight. At 27% Dell is growing better than their peers. At 25% they are growing better than their peers (save SUNW and EMC if you include such). At 20% they grow better. But, shareholders wanted 29%, not 27%, so they cut Dell's value by over one half. 27% implies possibly 15% or, worse 8% growth in the future. Once growth stagnates there is no stopping it, so the thinking goes. They punish Dell because Kumar was right and Michael Dell was wrong - by 3%. Of course, let's forget about the fact that Michael Dell was $32 billion right, so far, and Kumar was an observer, not the progenitor. How many more $billions will Michael Dell be right about? EMC's growth rate is 30%. They have 1/3rd the revenue of Dell and 140% greater market cap. EMC states the growth of their business is "enormous". EMC's earnings grew by 50%; but you can't grow revenue by 30% and earnings by 50% for long. One year at most, after that earnings normalizes against revenue growth. So; do you buy Dell to grow 25% or EMC to grow 30% to 35%? If EMC continued to grow 35% per year, it would take them 12 years to catch Dell if Dell grew but 20% per year ($285 billion in revenue in 12 years). If Dell grew at 25% per year, compared to EMC's 35%, it would take EMC 19 years to catch a Dell growing at 25% ($2.2 trillion in revenue). Currently, the market is pricing Dell to grow at but 11% per year for the next several years. Are we to believe the market's pricing of Dell at $25 when Dell clearly has products to capture market share from EMC by early next year? Even Compuware is finding that demand growth for large mainframes are falling prey to smaller more efficient Unix and Windows NT solutions. These smaller form solutions are what Dell is betting its future on. To quote Compuware's CEO, "We took our eye off the ball." Isn't the market in general taking their collective eye off the ball in regards to Dell's potential growth relative to its partners? Dell appears to be hitting on the key points as to where growth is heading; and more importantly, where earnings are heading. Yet, Europe remains dichotomous in its buying patterns. As for "exaggeration", if I crash landed in the Andes and had only my fellow dead passagers to eat to stay alive, would you consider it wild "exaggeration" to do such? Now that the "market" has crash landed Dell (for little good reason, but reason isn't necessary here) we can either "exaggerate" and keep the spirts high to stay alive, or we can "exaggerate" the negative and die with the rest of the crew. On the upside the survivors get to eat those who give up. No exaggeration here, just "the market, live with it" (as Mr. Tucker would say).