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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jmac who wrote (59959)	10/6/2000 12:58:44 PM
From: Saulamanca	Respond to of 99985

3042 but what`s 20 points.<g> If I was betting, I wouldn`t bet on it holding right now. This is nothing compared to the 1200 point drop the week of 4/9.

To: jmac who wrote (59959)	10/6/2000 1:22:31 PM
From: KymarFye	Respond to of 99985

You mean the MAY lows. We're looking up at the March lows. Comments about the long-term uptrend from '98 are accurate though. To me, question is whether or not the ENTIRE up move from Oct-Nov 1999 is going to be erased. Would not be unusual for larger double bottom to form with second bottom lower than first... might also coincide with retracement to resistance line (ca. 2900) that was broken to upside when Bull move began. And would coincide with full lower implication of drop out of rectangle from Summer double top. Think we could trade sideways for a while in new range, if so. Lower than that might make me wonder about long-term line going back all the way to middle '90s. So we're familiarizing ourselves with the scenario for a tech bear--"soft" landing a lot "harder" than we thought, the big R a possibility, Europe and Asia failing to provide adequate demand to sustain expansion, oil refusing to come back to the 20s, inflationary pressures continuing and preventing lowering of interest rates, even breakout earnings turning into a negative (seen as backward-looking and promising difficult comparisons going forward), party with advantage in election perceived as anti-business, worldwide political unrest--in short, stocks priced for perfection meeting decidedly imperfect world. The Bull case would have to be the opposite on each of these. Thing is, though it may take a while to form, it's quite possible. Caspian oil, for instance, is said to make the Alaskan fields look like a puddle...