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Strategies & Market Trends : NetCurrents NTCS -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teresa Lo who wrote (390)	10/9/2000 9:14:31 AM
From: davealex	Respond to of 8925

Can you tell me what you have changed? Mostly I have switched from playing intraday long breakouts to playing the Black Marubozu setups and shorts. I believe the "individual beaten down stock" psychology behind the Black Marubozu setups goes much deeper than the overall "we're in a bull market buy anything that moves up" psychology that worked well for propelling breakouts intraday. I stopped playing breakouts when I started noticing the breakout failure rate increasing. They would move above the intraday high and then, rather than attracting a slew of momo buyers, would move only slightly higher and base there for a long time -- tying up money -- or worse, decline. I just didn't trust them anymore. Intraday breakdowns appear to be a different matter. The psychology behind those can be read fairly well and they seem to work now in this market with about the same reliability as long breakouts did last Fall and Winter. So I make a lot more plays on short days. I'm sure none of this is new to people who trade every day. Support and resistance remain the keys to the plays, and price and volume remain the tells. I re-read my interview for Les Masonson's book and I would probably not change much (I approved the text in July), except for the fact that I do not trust the market enough to hold overnite. Flat at the end of every day. No exceptions. However, I am still working on my "problem" that I identified in the book of taking profits too soon. It seems to be very ingrained in me. The way I am dealing with it is to take partials at the point where I would have previously cashed out, move my stop to breakeven, and set an alarm for the next target (based on support and resistance) where I will take more partials. If the intraday chart is not staring me in the face saying "come on, take me!" I am less likely to pay attention, get antsy and bail. This last tactic has increased my profit per trade tremendously. Dave