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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: La Traguhs who wrote (8823)	10/6/2000 8:57:02 PM
From: Yogi - Paul	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

LT, <<sending out strong signals that PC demand is apparently crashing all around us, ...>> PC demand growth is as bad as I'd heard and I'm not looking forward to Q3 earnings announcements from disk drive sector. I am looking forward to guidance for 4th quarter and 2001. I think we are looking at a Christmas 2001 demand explosion in consumer electronics as MP3 and broadband finally get some meaningful penetration. Useful to note that Napster (file sharing) is the fastest growing application on the internet and is being tuned for video as well. Playstation II and x-box are kickers for '01, Maxattach a nice corporate product. Barring Armageddon, I'll be buying a bit more of MXTR after earnings and guidance although I'll check out the spread MXTR/HDD 1st. I want to see some earnings visibility. DSS, too. Gimmie 15-20% by Christmas '01 and I'd be quite content. Earthquake in South West Japan (Tottori), a 7.3 Biggest since Kobe. Paul

To: La Traguhs who wrote (8823)	10/8/2000 3:43:30 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9256

LT, Did you see this note posted on the Quantum thread by Gottfried? Drive market update Oct 5.2000 IDE desktop drives Dave Nebbia, NECX analyst, reports that there is a supply shortage for Quantum, Fujitsu, Seagate, IBM, and Maxtor. He notes that the manufacturers were not ready for the sudden increase in demand. Prices are rising, and inventory is scarce. “If OEMs don’t react now, they are going to be hurting tomorrow,” Nebbia says. He says that the major need is in the 4400 rpm and 5400 rpm drives. He predicts that the 7200 rpm drives in a 20 gig capacity are the next big sellers [snip] semiconductoronline.com. ------------------- So here is my question, Notice WDC is missing from the shortage list. Now there are 3 theories to explain this: 1- WDC is not worth mentioning. 2- He forgot to mention it. and 3- (drum roll please...) WDC is not facing a shortage. Is #3 plausible ? And does this mean a blowout Dec Q for WDC and enough exuberance to allow us long-suffering longs to finally feel vindicated (and dump our shares at a profit), even if it was by an unpredictable act of nature! Regards, Sarmad