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To: gnuman who wrote (56874)	10/6/2000 8:31:40 PM
From: Dave B	Respond to of 93625

Gene, I think you're making some generalizations based on your experience, and painting all marketing organizations with the same brush. I doubt if you have knowledge that Micron's marketing organization is inept at product forecasting. <g> Yes, I am, and I have no direct knowledge of Micron. However, after having worked at 5 companies and consulted for approximately 25 more (mostly multi-billion dollar organizations since they don't mind paying consultant rates as much), I can tell you that the only company that has impressed me (much to my chagrin) is Oracle. At Oracle, marketing is a real science (at least it was when I was there). Other than that, I'm not impressed at all. Unless you have direct knowledge of Micron that you'd like to share, I'll stay with the previous post. However, in addition to predicting quantities, I was addressing Micron marketings ability to get info on new product plans from the customers. In particular future plans for DDR. I thought you were focused on numbers, but that's fine. Samsung has the same marketing-type people and has come to different conclusions apparently with respect to future directions (or at least has decided to be more agnostic). Same customers, different attitudes. Why should Micron's be considered any more valid? Especially since there seems to be more evidence that other factors like egos would come into play here more than with any other manufacturer? This has less to do with quantities, (since new products are difficult to predict), and more to do with the features of future product plans from the PC makers. Marketing will be aware of new product development in the back room long before the analysts. (A lot of this is done under NDA). I disagree. Analysts hear those same plans and presentations (under NDA as well). [See next response] Based on my experience, a company like Compaq will spend six months or longer qualifying a new technology and developing a product around it. During this period there is strict secrecy about the program. Product marketing will work closely with the customer during this phase. BTW, this is the main reason for the speculation that "white box" makers will be first to market with DDR. The major PC makers will be very careful before announcing a product based on a new technology. But I'm sure you already know this. Part of validating a new concept is checking it with the analysts as well. I've done that a number of times with new products. You can't visit tons of customers, but the analysts do, so it's a quick way to poll a "number" of customers. Of course you still need to talk to customers, but one of the problems I've found with marketing types when getting customer feedback is that they take the customer's suggestions verbatim without probing for the problem that is generating a suggestion. On at least several occassions I've found that there was a better way to solve the problem (i.e. provided a more robust solution, or was easier to implement, or was clearer to other potential customers, etc.) than the one the customer(s) were suggesting. As for predicting quantities, from what I know, Micron should be better. Inside information (no details required) or just based on your perception of the market? We can agree to disagree. <VBG> Okay. <G> Dave