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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TWICK who wrote (34545)	10/7/2000 1:11:17 PM
From: PMG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

I've read some articles on that site and I'm starting to feel scared now ... the valuation debate is an endless one. But one again I get concerned about that system stability thing, domino effects of defaults... such rumors like we had Friday erect walls of worry of a different kind and once they are on the minds they catalyze any panic. I hope Ike can comment on this from his long experience. I read Soros' 1998 book "The crisis of global capitalism" and I have been thinking about it more frequntly in the recent time. The last time I had such a sentiment was in early August when I thought the market might not come back. I was huge in short-term out of the money puts and made a hell of a loss < g > (This crash prediction thing has always been a big fascination for me). But now I am thinking about going extra-short again though I will sure have an even closer look on my positions. I think the risk-reward ratio is even better this time as I do not expect a rally that could last and take us through the roofs anain. Plethora of resistance up there. I'll try to sell my AMNZ calls with a small profit on monday which stems from the 3% recovery till close and look for interesting puts on the NDX or YHOO. Suggestions where maximim downside would be to expect are very welcome. (Only for the case it really happens. And remember, last time I was a contrarian indicator that almost exactly caught the reversal:) PMG