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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Meathead who wrote (161889)	10/7/2000 10:10:50 AM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Meat - I agree 100%. From a post I did on the yahoo board today, comparing the management of expectations done by Capellas at CPQ to that of Michael Dell - Capellas inherited a company with deep structural problems, bad employee morale, and a weakening business case. DELL has a much stronger fundamental business, with no significant weaknesses, and is growing at twice CPQ's rate. Since Capellas became CEO, the company has provided accurate guidance on every aspect of its business, and has delivered on that guidance. DELL in the same period has confused the street and revised guidance in 3 of the last 5 quarters. When Capellas took over as CEO, CPQ stock price was at 24. It is 25 and change today. But when Capellas took over, DELL stock price was at 44. Today it is at 25 and change. CPQ at break even, DELL down 40%. I don't think you need any deep analysis to figure out which of those is better performance. If Michael Dell took a leaf out of Capellas' playbook, DELL stock would be in the high 40's now. DELL is a much healthier company than CPQ. The huge drop in stock price can be traced directly to MSD's management of street expectations and predictability, areas where Capellas gets star ratings. .... I think that Michael Dell is a great businessman but he needs to become a great CEO for a leading company. He is still acting like the scrappy startup CEO. The messages put out by Vanderslice and Rollins at the analyst conference are much more like the kind of things that Capellas has been saying. Michael Dell needs to reinforce those messages. Then maybe we can see DELL's stock price get back to where it's business performance says that price should be.

To: Meathead who wrote (161889)	10/7/2000 1:57:30 PM
From: stock bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Meathead, re:<<From what I hear, management is shell shocked. They did not believe that their stock could be so decimated because of slight adjustments to revenue forecasts when the business is healthy, sound and very profitable. They badly mis-calculated investor sentiment and the power of disappointment.>> I can't believe you said this. Are you telling me that you really believe this? Do you think these guys live in a cave? If, what you said is true, then they should all quit and find something else to do. Let not forget, the management of Dell has a fiduciary responsible to all the shareholders. If they mismanaged expectations, then they screwed up and should be held accountable to the shareholders. Let's not forget, this is a 30 billion dollar company that they are running, not a Mom and Pop shop. JMO Stock Bull

To: Meathead who wrote (161889)	10/7/2000 4:58:41 PM
From: Yaacov	Respond to of 176387

Thank you for your post. I do now understand. Several years ago the chairman of IBM in a meeting with the analyst said, we are a big company, we make PC, etc. Don't expect us to grow at the rate AOL does! Maybe Mr. Dell has to call the analysts and tell them what you posted to me? Kind regards Yaacov

To: Meathead who wrote (161889)	10/7/2000 5:21:38 PM
From: IceShark	Respond to of 176387

From what I hear, management is shell shocked. They did not believe that their stock could be so decimated because of slight adjustments to revenue forecasts when the business is healthy, sound and very profitable. That is surprising to hear. One would have thought they were a bit more in touch with the investment community and what has been happening lately. And given the crazy valuations applied by the market, a U-turn the other way should have been at least a considered possibility. In any event, I must complement you on being a reasoned voice here, even though we are on different sides of this bet.

To: Meathead who wrote (161889)	10/7/2000 11:42:48 PM
From: Sr K	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Another comment on: From what I hear, management is shell shocked. They did not believe that their stock could be so decimated because of slight adjustments to revenue forecasts when the business is healthy, sound and very profitable. This is very telling. According to Friday's WSJ page C2, MSFT sold 157 m put warrants with strike prices ranging from $70 to $78. That's a $2.9 B out of the money position (non-operating, only $1 per share, blah blah blah, only 12.6% of their cash on hand). How about Dell? Anyone know their put and call positions? Could they lose perhaps $1 B at current price levels? Could they have sold 30 m puts with a strike of $55? Or, net, a combination of buying calls that are out of the money, and selling puts that are deep in the money that amount to the same? There were a lot of posters here who looked at selling Dell puts or putting on Dell bullish put spreads as free money. But in the past year, the pricing and spreads took the game away. Oops! From the July 28, 2000 10-Q: At July 28, 2000, the Company also had outstanding put obligations covering 107 million shares with an average exercise price of $46 per share. The Company anticipates that it will continue to use excess liquidity to repurchase common stock. and [I would think that the following 7 m puts are included in the 107 m above] As a part of this program, during the second quarter of fiscal 2001, the Company sold 7 million put options, each of which entitles the holder to sell stock to the Company at a specified price on a specified date. These put options expire on various dates through March 2003 and have exercise prices ranging from $45 to $53 per share with an average exercise price of $49 per share. All of these transactions were exempt from registration under Section 4(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. Each transaction was privately negotiated, and each solicitation was made by the Company in the placement of these securities. From the 10-K: [number of puts is included above] The Company has an active stock repurchase program, which is more fully described in Note 7 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements included in “Item 8 — Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.” One element of the program is the purchase of call options and the sales of put and call options. During fiscal year 2000, the Company sold 79 million put options and forwards to third party financial intermediaries and received proceeds of $59 million in connection with such sales. The Company also sold 3.25 million call options to third party financial intermediaries and received proceeds of $4 million in connection with such sales. The put and call options entitle each holder to sell or purchase, respectively, by physical delivery, cash delivery or net-share settlement, at the Company’s option, one share of common stock at a specified price. The put options sold by the Company during the year expire on various dates through September 2001 and have exercise prices ranging from $25 to $47 per share with an average exercise price of $39. The call options sold by the Company during the fiscal year expire on various dates through July 2000 and have exercise prices ranging from $48 to $87 per share, with an average exercise price of $62. So it looks like they are $1.04 B under water for the FY2000 puts/calls, compared to the $1.666 B reported earnings. Bears IMO have some food for thought. No wonder they are shell shocked. It looks to me like Bernie Ebbers selling 3 m shares to meet a margin call is the tip of an iceberg. Would any of the put sellers or option players here have sold puts for 75 cents apiece or calls for $1.23? At first I thought "someone is an idiot." Then I realized maybe that's why Mort stepped away. There must have been a big argument over this move. I have no position in Dell.