Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: saukriver who wrote (32885)	10/7/2000 1:36:25 PM
From: Sunny	Respond to of 54805

Clearly intel continues to belong in the G&K portfolio. They are still a very strong king. Perhaps they were so strong at one time we confused them for a gorilla. Your point about AMD is similar to the CSCO / JNPR discussion. INTC may have lost the edge on a piece of the market but based upon shear volume they clearly have market leadership by a wide margin, With CSCO, no one doubts that they continue to belong to the venerable ranks they have earned. As for INTC's other business ventures, with over $13B in cash, they can afford to look for other tornadoes. Given their valuation now, they may be an extraordinary value with tremendous cash flows and the "potential" re establish their dominance. Think about the rhetoric surrounding QCOM in late Dec. People were paying exorbitant prices and a failure to meet expectations brought it back to earth. Now think about the value in May when it traded in the 40's and 50's. Today it trades 50% higher and could continue to move upward from here. Should you have been buying or selling in May? Typically the market swings to far in both directions. Should we look at this as a significant opportunity to buy one of the premier companies at reasonable valuations? Sunny

To: saukriver who wrote (32885)	10/7/2000 2:01:15 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 54805

saukriver, re: INTC - The Wireless future - MDIng - PCA << Shouldn't it be moved to the W&W portfolio? >> Assuming we keep the same procedure for placing Gorilla's & Kings in the G&K Index, INTC will stay or go depending on whether it is amongst the top 10 holdings of thread participants. Now SUNW, Im not so sure about. <g> << I think Intel is a company that may be able with all its R&D develop a new market it can dominate >> I'm not ready to write Intel off in semiconducters myself, but the wireless market is one that they will most definitely play in. Several years ago they helped found the GSM centric(CDMA didn't do data) Mobile Data Initiative (MDI). And have recently helped to revitalize that organization as the Mobile Data Initiative - next generation (MDI-ng) mdi-ng.org An article here: >> INTEL’S DOWN-TO-EARTH WIRELESS STRATEGY October 2, 2000 Wireless Week Peggy Albright wirelessweek.com One of the defining characteristics of this year’s PCIA GlobalXChange convention is the attendance of hundreds of new companies that are exhibiting for the first time or taking their first plunge into wireless. Computing giant Intel Corp. probably is one of the biggest firms to use this event as a coming-out party of sorts. While the firm has attended previous wireless trade shows as a low-key exhibitor, it has used fuller participation here at GlobalXChange to signal its interest in a wireless future. Intel was a conference sponsor, it staffed a larger, more visible booth, it displayed a car that runs Intel-powered computing and telematics applications and Ronald Smith, one of its mobile computing executives, delivered a keynote speech. Together, these efforts spelled out Intel’s ambition to become as pervasive in mobile communications and computing as it is in the wired world. Signaling participation in a high-growth industry probably is a good move for the company, considering the pounding it took recently on the stock market after its third-quarter financial report announced that European revenue had not lived up to expectations. Management promises that is a temporary dip, not a trend. "In the long term we still believe Intel is a great investment," says Smith, vice president and general manager of the wireless communications and computing group at Intel. Not surprisingly, Smith says his group is one of the fastest growing units in the company, along with network technologies. Though wireless-related revenue still is less than 10 percent of the company’s totals, 10 percent of a multibillion dollar business is nothing to sneeze at. Among Intel’s latest wireless offerings is its Personal Internet Client Architecture, called Intel PCA, that the firm says hardware and software developers can use to design next-generation wireless products. Smith’s speech at GlobalXChange was devoted to the Intel PCA, inasmuch as it represents the latest of the company’s building blocks that it hopes will accelerate the extension of the Internet to wireless equipment. That’s a plunge that is likely to make waves. << - Eric -

To: saukriver who wrote (32885)	10/7/2000 2:14:51 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Respond to of 54805

I agree with your points, showing that INTC is a king, albeit a very strong one. So also are JDSU and EMC. I am personally disappointed to have had to wait so many years for a 64 bit processor from intel; it seems to me their execution is lacking a bit. On the other hand their billions allow them to enter any new market, flash, cell phone chips, you name it, as at least a number 2. Incidentally I guess we all agree that MSFT is the gorilla of office software. But JDSU and EMC look like more attractive investments, to me anyway. If they really are better investments,then a king can be a better buy than a gorilla. Maybe king INTC right now is a better buy or at least as good a buy as before when it was considered a gorilla?

To: saukriver who wrote (32885)	10/7/2000 2:49:17 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Does INTC have a open, proprietary technology? No, that was licensed away to AMD at IBM's behest. Not quite true since it clearly has been Intel all along defining what happens next with that architecture and AMD has had, by and large, to copy Intel's moves. Plus, since the 386, AMD has had to accomplish that compatability without the right to actually copy the way Intel had done things. More to the point, perhaps, is that we have gotten to the point where the Pentium class chip is more and more a commodity item. Intel still has the prime mover control and won't be losing it shortly, but being LTB&H sorts of people, perhaps we should be looking at the next class of chip, the potential tornado there, and the fact that AMD will have no rights to that architecture. Instead, AMD is doing something different and it is even possible that they could come to dominate the 64bit x86 tornado (not a prediction, mind you, just noting that it is too early to declare a winner).

To: saukriver who wrote (32885)	10/8/2000 9:36:24 AM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Hi Sauky: provocative question: whether Intel should be removed from the G&K Portfolio? Uncle Frank, and the thread, will review this matter at the end of the year, and will likely compose the 2001 GKI based on the top 10 holdings near the end of 2000 for the thread. To determine this, the thread will likely call on that dope, Apollo, to conduct another semi-annual Portfolio Survey. I suspect Apollo will agree, and conduct this in November. From last year to this, I've been watching Intel very closely, both because I had owned Rambus and Intel, and because it was a classic gorilla on whom few others were much posting. So I have been posting on it to keep the thread generally informed. My views: 1. Intel has a good track record in management, continues to generate lots of cash, has an incredible cash horde, and is appropriately venturing into new territories. 2. Intel has been screwing up the past 2 years, coincident with Andy Grove's departure. For a period of time, from last September to this Spring, it was on a good run, with the PIII, no serious screw-ups, and tremendous demand. Meanwhile, the Itanium was on the horizon, as was the PIV. 3. Since the Spring, we learn that non-PC chip divisions are losing money, the PIV will be delayed, the timna chip is being dumped, and leadership has to be an issue. Some Intel posters on the Intel thread believe it is too early to question Craig Barrett's leadership as CEO, too soon to judge. 4. I think Intel is challenged on multiple fronts, and the transition now will be painful. I think the Market is less forgiving now than a year ago, as Intel cries Wolf more than once. I think it will take a lot of time to turn this around. Nevertheless, there are some positives: 1. Overall, and for a long time, Intel's management has generally been good; combine this with $13 billion in cash, and give them a couple years, and I would still think Intel will be in a strong position(s) at that time. 2. To the best of my knowledge, NOBODY has the FAB capacity that Intel has. Many feel that this is the hidden strength, perhaps the source of its gorilla-ness. Combine management, with cash, with unmatched FAB capacity, with name brand, with a very long history of hi-tech relationships, and it seems to me all of the pieces are in place. Whether these pieces will be wisely integrated in a way that will lead to a championship run is unknown. I think the key is management. The question is: how does a shareholder determine, concurrently or in advance, whether management has the stuff or ability to make it happen? apollo