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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: H James Morris who wrote (109766)10/7/2000 2:39:30 PM
From: PMG  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
Being even downgraded, AMZN closed quite satisfying for a day like Friday. It looks at least to be among the ones that came back a little bit.

PMG



To: H James Morris who wrote (109766)10/7/2000 2:43:05 PM
From: re3  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
how many former high fliers are 1/8th of their all time high ?

cmgi all time high 163
cmgi currently 21

i know, i know, its company specific :)



To: H James Morris who wrote (109766)10/7/2000 4:10:02 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
For every Arba there's 100 that's been trashed.

James,

This is a fact. One I belive should have been know years ago not just months ago. I did miss the mania thay ended months ago. There are a few very good firms and ARBA is one of them. It is not always easy to see and distinguish the difference real early in the game. I did own VERT at one time and sold all but 100 shares. I still own that 100 shares. The loss on that stock was my largest loss this year and I have no clue as to why I kept the 100 shares. Maybe I will ask for a paper certificate for a reminder. VERT's plan was not clear to me which means I should really have kept away from it.

I am pretty comfortable with my current holding. ARBA is fact cash flow positive as William stated. I did not take his word for it not that I do not trust William, it was his accounting for Amazon that concerned me regarding cash flow<G> I do not believe William was intentionally misleading as to Amazon's cash flow but rather he made an error. Amazon could confuse anyone from an accounting point of view<G>

AKAM may slide a bit more but they have so many good customers and demand for their product will grow greatly as broadband is rolled out to the masses. That is coming. I diversified into some energy plays such as DYN, CPST, PE and AMSC. I like CPST the best of the group.

I believe PHCM will do fine until someone builds a better mouse trap.

My point is my position in any single firm is not huge. I am not comfortable being on margin but 40% of my portfolio is bonds. Not sure if that really means margin then.

I have been very negative on Amazon but am becoming more negative on the analysts. I am thinking og the Amazon longs that believe in what the analysts say. Amazon is a buy at 100, great firm, building out distribution centers, etc. James I believe when this is all said and done you will get credit for being the first to call the buy-out of Amazon by AOL. However, I believe Amazon will file chapter 11 first to exit the lease agreements with all but two of the distribution centers. AOL will use the Amazon name and focus on books, music, video and the rest will be gone.

I was the first to call the problem with distribution which will be the ultimate demise of Amazon. I called this more than two years ago.

Glenn



To: H James Morris who wrote (109766)10/7/2000 5:21:25 PM
From: Robert Rose  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
<Internet Capital Group Inc. <ICGE.O>, which owns about a third of VerticalNet, closed down about 9 percent to $11-7/32. During the day,
Internet Capital Group hit a new 52-week low of $10-3/16, a far cry from its 52-week high of $212. >

I must wonder whether this ultimately speaks poorly for the b2b sector as a whole. Granted icge has been on the cutting edge (positively and negatively) of valuations. And granted, vert's model may be flawed, in some folks' views. But given the times and the multiples, arba's, cmrc's, and ppro's multiples may not be far behind. Heaven forbid, William!

Disclaimer: Large position in cmrc and small position in ppro. Not selling, just thankful for my 45% cash balance. :)
Can anyone say, "asset allocation?"