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To: Eric Wells who wrote (109831)	10/7/2000 8:27:26 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Respond to of 164684

OK, What I feel is unproven is Ariba's ability to generate future revenue and profit to justify it's current market cap. Of course, the future is always unknown. I agree with this. What is known is that there is the potential for a lot of competition in this space. Not true, imo. When SCM was the hottest space in technology in 1997 there were 2 contenders, itwo and manu and that is it. You can read about them in the gorilla game if that book interests you... ERP was also hot and there were 4 players, SAP, ORCL, Baan and Psft. Baan has been killed and Psft routed and recovering. But my point is that logistics automation is just too hard for everybody to knock off. There was the potential for a lot of competition then too, and there wasn't any. Otoh there was TONS of competition in the other hot space, CRM. Because CRM is easier than SCM. And Ariba is currently priced with the same rosy expectations that once drove stocks like AMZN, PCLN, ICGE and CMGI to prices over 100.