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To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (109839)10/7/2000 11:17:35 PM
From: H James Morris  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
> I can't even recall my reason for buying VERT
ROTFLMAO!!!



To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (109839)10/8/2000 12:33:29 PM
From: Eric Wells  Respond to of 164684
 
All of the questions you mentioned are relevant but I can't type that for every stock but I certainly will try.

Glenn - don't worry about writing up an analysis of Ariba's propects. I've already decided that I am not going to buy ARBA - at least not in the short term. I made my decision through reviewing the financial statements in the 10Q. While Ariba does have strong growth, I believe that current market risks, as well as current economic risks as a whole make the stock much over-valued. Of course, this is only my opinion - and others may differ.

I think things are a bit unstable in the market currently - and as such, I believe stocks with very high valuations are at risk. Every day for the last 2-3 weeks, we've seen Nasdaq futures up prior to market open, followed by failed rallies and sinking slow declines into the close (I believe there was one day this past week when a rally was actually sustained). It's as though the market wants to rally, but just can't. All the averages are down for the year - yet, the Nasdaq is still up 17% from where it was a year ago (which suggests to me that we could fall further yet). We've had a number of companies warn that earnings are not going to be good. I would guess that many companies will not be able to fall back on investment income to boost earnings as we saw happen last quarter. The price of oil is high - tensions in the Middle East and an early cold spell in the midwest (which I believe is occurring at the moment) may send oil prices higher. I'm not trying to paint a doomsday scenario here - but I see a lot of things that look like they might have a negative impact on the market, yet I see very few things that look like they might help to boost the market. And yet there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of fear - which is a cause for concern itself. With conditions as they currently are, capital preservation is a high priority for me - a higher priority than speculating on highly valued stocks in the hope that the market will give them even higher values. We all know that stocks of once respected companies sometimes fall precipitously and never recover. I'm not saying it will happen to ARBA. But in the last six months we've seen it happen to many stocks that have been highly praised on this thread in the past.

Thanks,
-Eric