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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: heraclitus who wrote (25690)	10/8/2000 1:11:44 AM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Sounds like he got out while the doors were still open, which was a good thing. I always contended that the usual 3 phases of the bear market will wipe out respectively: I. The margined clowns (during the denial phase...already happened in March-May... II. The Buy-the-dip clowns (during the fear phase...began in September and going strong) III. The Buy and Hold clowns (during the capitulation phase). They'll sell (a large number of Mutual Funds and 401K shares will be puked up then). My guess is it will occur next spring around tax time, but we could get the prolonged hard landing scenario based on whether the Fed finally gets true religion about monetary integrity or not. If they don't, it could drag on for years (suits me fine, especially if algore wins the election). Obviously, there's a lot of overlap between the groups, but the psychological profiles fit these phases to a tee. It's still encouraging to hear no real mention of the credit or real estate bubbles on TV, because all of the Clowns are focusing on this as primarily a "non-economic, market-driven" correction. The JOTT tauntings are great because they are evidence of ongoing denial. Consider it the bearish equivalent of the wall of worry (or as they said in American Beauty, "Never Underestimate the Power of Denial". HO HO HO!