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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: baggo who wrote (25701)	10/7/2000 10:22:23 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I don't deny being out of the market since Spring, 1999. I am just an observer, hoping to write a chronicle of the mania.

To: baggo who wrote (25701)	10/7/2000 10:49:52 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

<BUT.. I'll also admit to being up a bunch for the year. Like 100% on a seven figure portfolio.> Interesting, like a wounded animal... puffing out the chest like some exotic bird... brain twirling round and round unable to stop massaging those damaging memories and their potential implications. It may be time for you to be banned to help break the cycle. You need rest <ng> DAK

To: baggo who wrote (25701)	10/8/2000 3:26:23 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

OK, I'll bite. Sure, I wasn't a good shorter either. I was 100% right on the direction of the market, but totally screwed up entries, and as a result, exits. Overextended myself a tad, and paid the price. Fortunately, I remembered the cardinal rule: preserve capital. Live to play another day. The real big down still lies ahead, as the bubble dynamics kick into reverse. And I've learned that, to play the short side, one must adopt the strategies of the day trader. Impeccable entries are a must, since the fund managers have made it their standard policy to run the shorts out of worthless, P.O.S. companies like the Flea and Rambus. With a good entry, one can exit with one's head on one's shoulders, even if totally wrong. I had many bad entries in April, because I thought it was going further than it did on the first leg down. Did that make me conclude that betting against this economy was the right answer? No. The only way to grow capital through the unwinding of a mania is by betting against it. Cash will lose value to inflation, and you certainly don't want to buy and hold. I just knew that I had to learn how to make money through short sales if I was going to earn anything in the market for the next couple of years. Once things have unwound, I'll go right back to my buy-and-hold strategies. About the time everyone else has unlearned buy-the-dip. Make no mistake, Brice; you are witnessing one of the great secular bear markets in all history. You must realize that the majority of people won't realize it until after it's happened. If they did realize it, it would have already happened. Think about that for a second; it's a critical concept to grasp. The market is not an efficient discounting mechanism for reality, but it is perfectly efficient at discounting the present consensus. It's the change in consensus that produces movement. Presently, the consensus is waking up to the fact that these techno-fantasies require billions of dollars of capital to make them go, billions that the credit markets simply aren't willing to lend to companies that now have questionable cash flow. They are also waking to the fact that this Christmas is going to suck, because everyone who lives outside Florida and California is going to be paying 25-40% more on their heating bills and nursing stock market wounds. Yeah, if I'm a CEO, I'm going to take lots of risk on and build widgets like crazy for this Christmas. <s> I don't expect to change your mind. It took me repeated beatings over the head and losing the vast majority of my portfolio on the last go-round before I realized that buying the dip was not working. It's a lesson you'll probably have to learn for yourself. Since most of the stock market participants have been at it for less than five years, I'll assume you are in that group as well. Hopefully you'll figure it out before your seven-figure portfolio has a left-shift on the decimal place. The fewer stupid mistakes are made in the coming months, the shorter this recession will be. Please act intelligently. You've got a lot of Clowns to make up for... BC