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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajbrenner who wrote (12016)	10/7/2000 10:21:05 PM
From: Maverick	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

SSB:EPS estimate 10/7/00 EARNINGS PER SHARE FY ends 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Full Year 12/99A Actual ($0.40)A ($0.55)A ($0.36)A $0.21A ($1.10)A 12/00E Current $0.57E $0.60E $0.63E $0.84E $2.64E Previous $0.57E $0.61E $0.63E $0.84E $2.65E 12/01E Current $0.60E $0.65E $0.71E $0.78E $2.75E Previous $0.61E $0.66E $0.71E $0.78E $2.75E

To: ajbrenner who wrote (12016)	10/7/2000 10:23:14 PM
From: Paul Ma	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

the date is 8/17, quite old considering the events of the past month. Q3 seems to be .61, low yes.

To: ajbrenner who wrote (12016)	10/7/2000 10:31:59 PM
From: Maverick	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

HQ:Q3 Rev $1.2B, EPS $0.62 The lower the bar, the easier AMD can beat est. 9/22/00 1999 A 2000 E 2001 E Q1 EPS $(0.41) $0.57A $0.59 Q2 EPS (0.55) 0.61A 0.61 Q3 EPS (0.36) 0.62 0.69 Q4 EPS 0.22 0.70 0.86 FY EPS (1.10) 2.50 2.75 FY REVS (M) 2,858 4,859 6,014 CY EPS (1.10) 2.50 2.75 CY P/E NM 9.6 8.7 AMD: Reducing Our Rating to Market Perform; Lowering Price Target to $35 * While we believe that AMD's quarter is intact, in terms of meeting our top line and EPS numbers of $1.2B and $0.62 respectively, we believe that due to Intel's shortfall and the fact that Intel (INTC, $48, MP) is the bellwether in the industry and the largest supplier of MPUs, AMD's stock will continue to be under pressure in the short term. * Our recent channel checks within the industry show that the company is already beginning to see an upswing in demand due to the Christmas holiday season. We are concerned though, that if PC sales do slowdown below our forecast of approximately 15-17%, there could be a meaningful inventory overhang in the system where we believe Intel will try to gain more marketshare at AMD's expense. * We are lowering our rating on AMD from a STRONG BUY to a Market Perform and our price target from $75 to $35 but we will revisit both our rating and our price target once we get better clarity on the dynamics of the MPU market.

To: ajbrenner who wrote (12016)	10/8/2000 12:21:38 AM
From: porn_start878	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Isn't taht a big jump over previous estimates? I may be totally wrong and, if so, I apologize, but would it be possible that you forget that those are based on a pre-split number of shares. 5.23 post-split would be arch a big jump!!! The funniest is that as virtually all the chips will be Athlon derivates and the ASP should be in the 120's we could get close to that number. Quicly you have (averaged for the 4 Quarter) (9 + 10 + 12 + 15)millions K7s at say $120 each = 5520M ... produced at around 60$ each (which include depreciation R&D etc) (remember the switch to .13 lower the costs in Q4) = 2760M (500 + 550 + 600 + 650) in flash = 2200M ... say produced at 45% of the cost = 1210M the rest of the business is neglictible IMO... i consider it as breakeven (the little profits slightly upset too optimistic prod costs) (3750M)/400 millions shares = 9.375 pre taxes 7 per share ? this was quickly done... I must be wrong somewhere (production costs?) but my revenues estimates are not that optimistic (is ASP too high?) Max Cautionary statement : Do not consider as serious predictions...